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The new strain of coronavirus has changed everything. If he took anything else away from the ordinary low-key prime minister’s press conference, he shouldn’t have.
Expectations that were set just a week ago have been changed, plans everywhere from the Treasury to the Department of Education are being rewritten, and the beginning of 2021 seems almost certain to be much bleaker, even if the government itself he’s not ready to spell it all out as frankly as possible.
The most important meeting of the day involved not Boris Johnson, but government scientific advisers trying to decide what to do next.
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New variant: What else do we know?
Its conclusion should concern everyone.
They redoubled their assessment that the new variant of coronavirus it spreads faster, 50% to 70% faster, than the existing strain.
While it is true that it does not cause a more serious disease or higher death rate, and that the vaccine is likely to work in the new variant, transmissibility is itself a devastating development.
Politicians feel they cannot allow the disease to “tear” the community, as it would lead to more infections, more hospitalizations and more deaths and overwhelm the NHS. The new strain makes it harder to contain.
If the science is correct, the only question is when not, if the government introduces an even harsher blockade than the one announced by the prime minister’s emergency press conference on Saturday night.
Johnson’s top science advisor blurted this out in the middle of the press conference, in passing, with little fanfare.
When asked if new restrictions are necessary, Sir Patrick Vallance stated that “measures are likely to be increased in some places in due course”.
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Chief Scientific Advisor warns of further restrictions
Speaking from the podium in Downing Street, standing next to the Prime Minister, this is as good as a promise to the nation, although the Prime Minister did not compromise or acknowledge it, however.
Privately, Downing Street acknowledges that this means more areas are entering the newly created Level 4, but believes this may be delayed until the next formal checkpoint on December 30. We will see.
The second area that lacks full transparency concerns schools.
Government scientific advisers have formally sounded the alarm over high school students.
Today they said that the new variant can be transmitted by both children and adults.
In Northern Ireland, the Health Minister has announced that not all schools will reopen in January.
There are high-level voices in government saying don’t open schools in January if you want to prevent case rates from increasing massively.
Johnson, however, was ambiguous. Look at the way he phrased his response: “I think the most helpful thing I can tell you at this stage is obviously if we can get the schools back in a phased manner in early January, in the way that we have set out to do.
“But, obviously, the most logical thing is to follow the path of the epidemic as we showed last Saturday and keep things in constant review.
“It is very, very important to have children and keep them in education if possible.”
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It does not suggest that parents prepare for the worst. But he does not suggest, because he cannot, that they assume that schools are open normally.
When will we know what January has in store for us? Neil Ferguson, the returning imperial academic advising the government, said the best thing to do would be to monitor COVID cases for the next two weeks while schools are closed and people are home, and then they decide.
Johnson, as always, is unlikely to make a decision he doesn’t need yet.
