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Government scientists analyzed the massive coronavirus tests in almost everyone in the UK, before concluding that a more targeted approach would be more effective.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) held a series of discussions on the potential impact of a program in which a large proportion of the population received only once COVID-19 evidence, show recently published documents.
But experts decided the plan would likely be less successful in reducing the spread of coronavirus that “more frequent and targeted testing of people who are at higher risk of becoming infected and of infecting others.”
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The document, which contains information from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-M), said that massive testing could “identify a large number of infected people” if performed successfully.
But he noted that doing it alone would not stop transmission, requiring people who were at an early stage of infection to isolate themselves.
He said the model indicated that mass testing would likely only reduce the prevalence of the virus by 15-20% at “best,” which “could only buy us a week.”
SAGE also pointed to behavioral factors in the expected success of the massive tests, referring to the evidence in Liverpool, where The massive tests were introduced in early November..
“In Liverpool, the positivity of mass tests could be lower than would be expected, based on the estimated regional prevalence,” he said.
“This may mean that those who show up for mass testing are less likely than average to get infected.”
It concludes: “More frequent and targeted testing of people who are at higher risk of becoming infected and infecting others (such as key workers, health and social care workers and people in high prevalence areas) are likely to have an impact. greater than frequent testing of the entire population.
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“It is plausible that targeting groups that are less likely to have symptoms (and therefore less likely to be detected in symptomatic tests), such as younger adults, may have a greater effect, but we know of no work to evaluate such a strategy. “
It came when a principals union said it would not be possible to recruit and train all the volunteers needed to conduct COVID-19 tests for students.
The government has said that the return of high school and college pupils to classes in England will be staggered in the first week of January to help principals implement mass testing of students.
Schools Minister Nick Gibb said the tests would be administered by volunteers and agency staff, rather than teachers, with more details to be released next week, when most schools are closed for Christmas.
But Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and University Leaders (ASCL), said: “Plans outlined at the last minute by the government for mass testing in schools and universities since the beginning of the spring term cannot be delivered. in that period of time, and it’s beyond belief that it was given to school and college leaders in such a clumsy way. “
