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COVID-19 infections fell by more than 30% during the second lockdown, but later leveled off according to a large study from Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI.
The REACT-1 study evaluated more than 160,000 volunteers in England between 13 November and 3 December as part of one of the largest COVID-19 Surveillance examinations of infection levels in the general population.
The prevalence, or the percentage of the population affected by the coronavirus at any given time, fell from an average of 1.30% in mid-October to early November, to an average of 0.94% during the lockdown period, meaning that fell from 130 to 94 people. infected by 10,000.
“During the first half of the shutdown, our study showed that infections were on a clear downward trajectory, but now we are seeing a stabilization,” said Professor Paul Elliott, program director at Imperial.
He explained that this was driven by groups of infections in certain regions and age groups.
“Public health behaviors and measures must be guided by this rapidly changing situation to prevent it from getting worse, and everyone has a role to play in keeping this virus at bay, especially as we approach a relaxation of the rules at Christmas. “
While infections have generally declined in England and the spread has slowed, there are clear differences in prevalence between regions and rates are increasing in the capital.
The prevalence increased in London from 98 per 10,000 infected people in mid-November to 121 per 10,000 infected in early December, the highest prevalence after Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East.
The findings show an increase in infections among young people ages 13 to 17. It calls for all school-age children aged 11 to 18 in the worst affected boroughs of London, parts of Essex and parts of Kent to be tested, whether they have symptoms or not.
The latest figures from the ONS showed that almost one in three people in England show no symptoms of having the virus, but can still transmit it.
During the lockdown, regional R-numbers (the rate at which an infected person can transmit the virus to others) ranged from 0.60 for West Midlands to 1.2 for London, although the national R-number was estimated at 0, 96 between November 13 and December 3. .
Findings come as London joins parts of Essex and Kent in moving to Tier 3 restrictions. The government should review the existing rating system by December 16, taking into account a variety of criteria including regional prevalence, pressure on the NHS and case rates in those over 60 and in residences.
The researchers say that adherence to the stricter tier systems is critical to continuing to reduce regional variable rates of infections.
