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Coronavirus security measures are likely to remain necessary for another two years, England’s chief medical officer said.
Professor Chris Whitty said it could take up to two years for the world to create a bank of vaccines and technologies capable of rapidly addressing COVID-19 variants and shoots.
While he said these tools will eventually “find a way,” there is still a level of risk that must be managed before then.
Speaking during a Royal Society of Medicine webinar on Thursday, Professor Whitty said that a cautious approach will be needed for the next several years “because we have such a difficult situation to go through right now.”
He added: “What we don’t want is to be in a situation where we look back at six months and say ‘if only we had been a little more cautious for a month or two, we really would have gotten over it.’ [vaccinating] the whole population, we would have understood much more, we would know how to deal with this, we would probably have some variant vaccines in stock. “
“I don’t think that although this should be seen as an indefinite position, I think it is a question of probably the next year or two as we understand how to do this and find a way to respond quickly to variations.”
However, he said a “very broad portfolio of vaccines” is likely to be available in about two years, offering further protection.
“If we go forward two years, I think we will have a very large portfolio of vaccines,” said Professor Whitty.
He added that the technology can “turn a vaccine into a new variant incredibly fast, compared to how historically we have been able to do so.”
“So I think technology will find a way to overcome this in the long term, but we have a period of risk between now and then,” he added.
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‘The wall of protection against vaccines is leaking, it is not complete’
Professor Whitty said that while the R number (the rate at which the virus replicated) is less than 1, variants arriving in the UK “don’t have much of a foothold”, but added that R is anticipated It will rise above 1 as more things open up on the lock-out roadmap.
Politicians and experts have issued warnings to the public to stick to coronavirus rules, after the stay-at-home order was lifted in England on Monday and the “rule of six” reverted to place for outdoor gatherings.
On Monday, Boris Johnson warned the people to “proceed with caution.”
“What we don’t know is exactly how strong our fortifications are now, how robust our defenses are against another wave,” he said.
“That is why I emphasize the importance of everyone maintaining the discipline that people have shown for so long.”
It comes as a survey by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the level of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England has dropped to its lowest level since September 24.
About one in 370 people in private homes in England had COVID-19 in the week through March 27, slightly less than one in 340 the week before, the ONS said. For the week ending September 24, the estimate stood at one in 470.
However, the ONS said the percentage of people testing positive for the virus is estimated to have increased in eastern England.
The trend was uncertain for all other regions, but had declined in south-east and south-west England, the ONS added.
Yorkshire and the Humber had the highest proportion of people of any region in England likely to test positive for coronavirus in the week to March 27 – around one in 230.
North West England had the next highest estimate at one in 280.
Meanwhile, England’s deputy chief medical officer has said the UK was not fully prepared for such a pandemic.
Jenny Harries said the UK was not ‘fully prepared’ for such a pandemic
Dr Jenny Harries said more testing would have been carried out if the tests were available sooner, and knowledge about asymptomatic transmission could have led to a quick recommendation to wear masks.
Speaking at the launch of the new UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), of which she is executive director, Dr Harries told BBC Radio 4’s Today show: “We were not fully prepared for this pandemic and as I have said, ‘I am very happy to accept that there is much to learn.
“I think we share some of those flaws with many other countries.”
When asked if the initial response to the pandemic was poor, he said: “I think it had merits and it had things that we would like to improve.”
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He said that while asymptomatic transmission had been “carefully considered,” the proportion of cases, now believed to be 30%, was not recognized.
“So obviously the response that we implemented and some of the interventions did not take into account that high degree of asymptomatic case numbers, so I think there is learning as we move forward.”
