Covid-19: Case growth may be slowing in England

The growth of coronavirus cases may be slowing down, suggests the largest study of the infection in England.

A team from Imperial College London analyzed samples of 84,000 randomly chosen people from across the country.

They said that the R number, the reproduction number of the virus, appears to have decreased since measures including the “rule of six” were introduced.

However, they warn that cases are high, with one in 200 people infected.

The React study is highly influential, both because of its size and because it provides an up-to-date picture of how the virus is spreading. The last samples used in the analysis were collected as recently as Saturday.

In the previous React report, infections were found to double every seven to eight days in late August and early September.

This, in turn, prompted warnings that there could be 50,000 cases a day by mid-October if that pattern continued.

The research group then estimated that the R number, the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the virus, on average, was 1.7.

The latest analysis, of swab samples collected between Sept. 19-26, suggests that the R number has dropped to around 1.1, though the exact figure is uncertain.

The researchers said it is the first indication that measures such as the “rule of six” and increased public concern about the coronavirus “may have an impact on transmission.”

Professor Paul Elliott from Imperial College London told me: “This is a very critical period, we know that in an exponential phase a large number of cases is reached very quickly.

“There seems to be a drop in the rate of increase, the R number seems to have gone down.

“Clearly, no one wants a total lockdown, but if we pay attention to public health messages about social distancing, hand washing, face covering and testing and isolation, then I think we can reject the virus.”

However, that period in which cases were doubling every week means that there are now much more viruses.

“What we found is that the prevalence has increased dramatically, one in 200 people who walk the streets in a day has a measurable virus,” added Professor Elliott.

Because the study tests people at random, not all people who test positive will develop symptoms.

However, the increase was observed in all regions of the country and in all age groups.

Infection rates were highest among youth ages 18-24, with one in 100 testing positive for the virus.

Infection rates were much lower among those over 65, but have increased sevenfold since the last report (from 0.04% to 0.29%).

“The idea that everything is young people and ‘that’s fine’ is just not the case,” said Professor Elliott.

This is just one of many sources of information, along with the Office for National Statistics, disease modeling groups, hospital data and NHS Testing and Tracing, that the government relies on to assess the situation.

‘There is no reason for complacency’

On Wednesday, the government’s top scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said: “We don’t have this under control at the moment.

“There is no reason for complacency here at all.”

The latest coronavirus figures from the UK showed there have been another 7,108 cases and another 71 deaths.

Last week, Johnson introduced restrictions that include a 10 p.m. closing time for pubs, bars and restaurants in England, with similar announcements in Scotland and Wales, and a 15-person limit for weddings.

Since then, more local closures have come into effect, including in the northeast of England, where households are prohibited from mixing indoors.

MPs are now waiting for additional restrictions to be introduced in Liverpool, after some MPs met with Care Minister Helen Whatley.

The city has seen a spike in cases, with a 16% positivity rate.

BBC Newsnight was told the measures would be tougher than those in place in the Northeast and could include a ban on pubs serving drinks without food.

Meanwhile, other MPs said the case of routine testing of all NHS staff in England was “compelling”.

The Health and Welfare Committee said it should be introduced as soon as possible before winter.

The government and NHS England told the committee that they wanted to carry out routine staff tests, but any plan depended on available capacity.

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