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More than a dozen Level 2 areas are among the worst for COVID-19 in England, while some Level 3 areas are now among the lowest, according to Sky News analysis.
Ahead of the December 16 level review, Sky News has found 16 local authority areas where COVID-19 The situation is among the most critical in the country.
Half of those areas are in London, which is on Level 2, including: Havering, Barking and Dagenham, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Hillingdon and Bexley.
Levels were determined by entire counties or city regions after SAGE, the government’s scientific advisory body, warned of “edge effects” – people crossing district and district boundaries, increasing the likelihood of the spread of the virus.
The other critical areas are in Essex, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire and the East Midlands.
They are: Basildon, Brentwood, Castle Point, Epping Forest, Harlow, Milton Keynes, Luton and Northampton.
But Trafford, Gateshead, Derbyshire Dales and Stratford-on-Avon, currently at Level 3, have a similar situation to the areas with the lowest rates and where cases are declining.
Council leaders and MPs in some of the divergent areas have called on the government to divide the counties, but in Essex and London, council leaders and London Mayor Sadiq Khan have asked for assurances that their areas will not be will divide.
Several different criteria are being used to determine which areas are at what level: case rates in all age groups, case rates in those over 60, the rate of increase or decrease in cases, positivity rate ( percentage of tests that are positive) and pressure on the NHS.
However, the government has not disclosed whether it is giving more importance to some criteria than others.
When it comes to pressure on the NHS, there is a divide between north and south, with northern hospitals having the highest number of admissions.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control has said that any increase of more than 25% compared to the April peak is cause for concern.
Only London is below that threshold.
It’s a similar picture when you consider the number of COVID-19 patients occupying hospital beds. Midlands and Northwest have the highest proportion of patients in intensive care.
The government has not indicated which areas will be at which levels after December 16, but with the increase in cases in many areas from Level 2, there is a possibility that several areas will change before Christmas.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock has suggested that he will consider implementing the tiers on a more local basis, which would benefit Tier 3 areas where rates have dropped compared to his region, such as Trafford and Gateshead.
Due to the UK-wide plan for the Christmas season, the tier system will be removed primarily so that people can join two other households between 23-27 December.
Methodology
The current weekly infection rate is the number of cases per 100,000 people between November 30 and December 6.
That compares to the week ending Nov. 29 to estimate the increase in case decline.
The positivity rate has been calculated using the daily rate of individuals screened between November 26 and December 2.
The 16 local authorities have been estimated in areas that meet all these criteria: positivity rate greater than 5%, increase in the number of cases compared to the previous week, and an overall infection rate greater than 60 over the third quartile of England.
The four local authorities at Level 3 meet the following criteria: positivity rate below 5%, a decrease in the number of cases compared to the previous week and an overall infection rate, and over 60 years, below of the first quartile of England.
