Could Alex Salmond take down Nicola Sturgeon?

In the coming weeks, the two most prominent figures in SNP history will give testimony in a Holyrood investigation into how the Scottish government handled harassment allegations against former Scottish Prime Minister Alex Salmond.

Salmond has accused Nicola Sturgeon of deceiving the Scottish Parliament and violating the ministerial code.

Sturgeon’s spokesman has accused Salmond of fabricating false conspiracy theories.

The dispute could have important implications for Scottish politics.

“He’s trying to tear down the house.”

That was the conclusion of one of Sturgeon’s close allies shortly after it emerged that Salmond was publicly accusing her of misleading the Scottish Parliament and violating the ministerial code.

For months, some around Scotland’s prime minister hoped Salmond would refrain from directly criticizing Ms Sturgeon in a way that could threaten her work.

They believed that attacking Sturgeon directly would alienate supporters of Scottish independence, something Salmond wanted to avoid.

That calculation changed with Salmond’s submission to an investigation into whether Sturgeon violated the ministerial code.

Some around the SNP leader now fear the next few weeks could be bloody.

The image above was taken days before the referendum in 2014, when Salmond and Sturgeon were the dream team of the independence movement.

For a decade, as leader and deputy director, they had dominated nationalist politics.

When Mr. Salmond resigned, there was no question who would take over: Sturgeon was the natural successor.

That relationship has completely collapsed as a result of the sexual harassment allegations against Mr. Salmond.

When the complaints arose, Salmond successfully took the Scottish Sturgeon government to court for its flawed process of investigating it.

Salmond’s victory cost the taxpayer £ 500,000.

Now, Sturgeon faces questions, especially from Salmond, about why the Scottish government did not admit to problems with its process earlier, and whether it misled the Scottish Parliament about when it first learned of the allegations.

Sturgeon says he forgot a meeting he had with a former Salmond assistant, days before meeting Salmond privately at his home.

You have said that you first learned of a complaint against Mr Salmond, which was being investigated by his Scottish government, on April 2, 2018.

That meeting took place at his home and was not recorded.

But since then it has been claimed that Sturgeon told him so a few days earlier in the Scottish Parliament by Salmond’s former chief of staff.

That raised questions about what Sturgeon knew, why he met Salmond privately and why it was not registered as an official government business.

My colleague Phil Sim has written about the ins and outs of meetings here.

There are two investigations into the alleged mishandling by the Scottish government of the complaints against Mr Salmond.

One is from James Hamilton, the prime minister’s independent adviser on the ministerial code, on whether he has violated it.

The second is a cross-party Holyrood investigation into how his administration handled complaints about Salmond.

In a remarkable seven-page communication published earlier this month, Mr. Salmond accused Ms. Sturgeon of holding charges that are “simply false”, “manifestly false” and untenable “.

“Parliament has been repeatedly misled,” says Salmond.

Salmond believes that he was treated unfairly by the government he used to run.

There are many in the SNP, including a small but loyal group of elected politicians, who agree and believe there was a conspiracy against them that could lead to the resignation of several key Scottish government officials.

Some include Ms. Sturgeon in that group.

Sturgeon says this is all nonsense and denies violating the ministerial code.

His spokesperson has accused Salmond of trying to deflect complaints made by women about his behavior, and accused his former mentor of “inventing false conspiracy theories.”

In the words of Ms Sturgeon: “I have faced accusations of ‘conspiring’ against Alex Salmond and also of ‘colluding’ with him. I reject both suggestions in the strongest terms.”

If there is another referendum on Scottish independence, it is almost impossible to see the “dream team” of 2014 working together again.

But this is not just a fallout story between two giants of Scottish politics.

It could have ramifications for the future of the SNP, independence, and Ms. Sturgeon herself.

Nicola Sturgeon’s political opponents have struggled to land a political coup in recent months.

Polls suggest that support for the SNP is as high as ever, and that support for Scottish independence has been growing.

Although there has been criticism of the Scottish government’s handling of the pandemic, the evidence suggests that the Scots are happy that Sturgeon is making the decisions, and not Boris Johnson.

For many in Scottish politics, it seems that the biggest threat to Sturgeon’s position now comes from his predecessor.

Salmond’s claims that his former protégé did not tell the Scottish Parliament the truth, and that she broke the ministerial code, are serious.

Sturgeon denies them outright, but in normal times such a breach of the code would lead to a resignation.

The code is clear: “Ministers who knowingly mislead parliament are expected to resign.”

Sturgeon’s political opponents have insisted that if he is found to have violated the code, he will have to withdraw.

Privately, while confident it won’t come to that, some around the prime minister admit that she couldn’t survive such a finding from her code adviser.

Many important Scottish figures in the age of devolution have resigned for less.

There is a discussion about when Mr. Salmond will give evidence to the MSPs about his claims.

But it is clear that he has decided not to hold back in his criticism of the prime minister and the civil service, and that could prove dangerous for the Scottish government.

A high-ranking SNP politician was outspoken; They thought that Mr. Salmond would try to bring Ms. Sturgeon in the next few weeks.

“He is trying to take down a prime minister who is well liked and respected.”

The opposition parties in Scotland have scratched their heads a lot about gaining ground in the SNP.

Frankly, no one seems to have an answer.

But for months, well-connected opposition figures have said this investigation is a time of real danger for Sturgeon’s leadership.

Some think it might make you depressed, others that even if it doesn’t, it will raise serious questions about your honesty.

But while many in Scottish politics discuss Sturgeon’s future, very few people confidently predict his demise.

The main reason is the pandemic.

Sturgeon has extremely high approval ratings for his handling of the coronavirus.

Scots seem to approve of the way he is trying to deal with the health emergency, with some believing that voters would forgive a violation of the rules in the middle of a crisis.

It is an opinion that I have heard from critics of Ms. Sturgeon as well as from her allies; that these are not normal times and normal policy rules do not apply.

Salmond’s supporters are reluctant to speak officially.

I have been told that some elected MPs fear the reaction they would suffer if they did.

But one source said: “I think in normal times she would be lost. But I don’t think she is lost because people are correctly focused on the pandemic and their handling of the pandemic has been excellent.”

The second is independence. Sturgeon has brought the SNP and the independence movement to a point where successive polls have suggested that support for leaving the UK is now a majority opinion.

Some members of the SNP have criticized the lack of strategy to force another referendum, but most accept that the prime minister is a key asset for the independence movement.

That makes it less likely that Salmond’s allies will, or could, force her to resign.

If the SNP loses its leader and key asset, that could have an impact on support for independence.

While several names have been discussed, there is no sure successor, definitely not with the same profile in the UK and internationally.

Mr. Salmond’s evidence for the Holyrood investigation will be a remarkable moment in the history of the SNP; the leader who brought the party to the brink of independence by accusing the leader that he could deliver it of deceiving Parliament.

Even if Sturgeon survives, Salmond’s allies believe that others may be “toasts”; including senior officials and advisers.

But Sturgeon’s main allies still seem confident that he will lead them to the upcoming Scottish elections and beyond.

One concluded, “Is he going to get over this? Yes, he is.”