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Portugal could soon be added back to the UK’s quarantine list after a spike in cases, less than two weeks after it was deemed “safe.”
Many flights have sold out as travelers rush back to the UK to avoid the prospect of two weeks of self-isolation.
Countries like the Czech Republic and Croatia have also been removed from travel broker lists in recent weeks, so how do you decide who comes in and who goes out?
One of the main criteria is the last seven-day infection rate, which provides an estimate of the prevalence of active cases.
If it reaches 20 new reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the authorities consider ordering travelers to return to quarantine.
That’s why so many tourists on the famous Algarve beaches have packed their bags early: Portugal’s figure hit 21.1 in the seven days to August 30, down from 14.5.
Their two-week cumulative rate was 36.9 on Sept. 2, according to the EU’s disease control agency.
But this is not the only factor.
Public Health England told Sky News that it weighs the weekly data against longer-term trends in cases and deaths, and how the infection rate could develop in the coming weeks.
The amount of evidence in a country, the “quality” of its data, and “government actions” are also examined.
If only limited testing is done, it can be difficult to trust the numbers to provide an accurate picture, so it’s important to see how much testing is actually being done relative to the population.
PHE said the proportion of tests with a positive result can be a crucial measure.
Because limited testing makes it likely that cases will be missed (and more widespread evidence that more will be identified), it can help to better understand what is happening, and whether quarantine restrictions may be needed.
Some countries, such as Australia and South Korea, have a rate of around 1% and it may take hundreds or even thousands of tests to find a positive case, say experts like the University of Oxford.
But in Mexico, for example, the rate is much higher and new cases are found in every handful of tests.
The World Health Organization said in May that a positive test rate of less than 5% was an indicator that a country’s outbreak is under control.
Strict proactive measures to prevent and address any outbreak are also likely to be viewed favorably when UK experts and ministers assess the bigger picture for any country.
It is also important whether the increase in infections is due to a general spread of the virus in one country or to a more contained local outbreak.
For example, clusters of cases in Zakynthos in Greece have prompted the Welsh government to ask travelers returning home from the island to self-isolate.
Zante in Greece has experienced a number of cases
Scotland has gone further and decided to remove Greece from its “insurance” list entirely as of Thursday morning.
However, there are currently no restrictions on returning travelers to England.
Who decides which countries are a ‘risk’?
The nations of the United Kingdom are advised by their own public health bodies and are in control of their own travel rules, so some can act before others, but the restrictions are almost identical.
England’s ministers decide based on advice from PHE and the Joint Center for Biosafety, the body that also advises on local closure.
Advice from the center can also contribute to decisions made by other UK governments.
Changes to the quarantine lists could be made at any time for public health reasons, but in England announcements are generally made on Thursdays and the changes take effect on Saturday.
