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The government is considering a “total social lockdown” across much of northern Britain and London as COVID-19 cases rise.
A lot tighter measures in much of England it would take place if the proposal, reported by the Times, goes ahead, with care minister Helen Whately refusing to deny it’s in the letters to Sky News.
What is a social blockade?
The plan is for all pubs and restaurants to close for two weeks as part of a “circuit interruption” to halt the surge. coronavirus cases, according to The Times.
Households would also be prohibited from gathering anywhere inland indefinitely, a measure that several areas, including North East England, have already imposed as part of local closures.
But schools and stores would remain open, as would offices for those unable to work from home.
Would this stop the increase in coronavirus cases?
Yes, but only if …
Dr Andrew Preston, an infectious disease microbiologist at the University of Bath, said the “circuit breaker” method would likely slow the rise in cases.
However, he said the only way to make sure it stays that way is if the government uses those fifteen closures to kick-start other measures for when they reopen.
“It will be a two-week recess for the government, but if he gets back to where we are now, he will do nothing,” he told Sky News.
“Two weeks will not clear the infection and we will still have schools and universities open – there is enough infection within those groups that it will not stop transmission.
“Unless testing and tracing is arranged so that we are testing a lot more people and testing faster, then we will just get back to where we are.”
He said preventing households from mixing is less economically damaging and could help cut transmission of the virus.
It is also much clearer than many of the other rules, but loneliness and mental health would become a bigger problem, he added.
Dr. Preston said: “Ultimately, the government must stick to a decision on whether it wants to suppress the virus or contain the economy.
“They must inform the public what their goal is and agree on an approach with both the health department and the treasury.
“The public needs a clear idea of why they are having to take certain measures instead of oscillating between periods of repression and more freedom.”
How many people are getting infected in pubs, restaurants and bars?
Obtaining a definitive number is difficult as it is difficult to determine exactly where someone contracted the virus if they have been in a variety of places.
The latest NHS Test and Trace data showed “eating out” was the most common activity reported by the 45,087 people who tested positive in England.
From August 10, when they began to collect activity data, to September 24, 14.6% of the events reported were “eating out,” followed by shopping (13.4%).
Deputy Medical Director Jonathan Van-Tam said Friday that pubs alone account for 9% of cases, increasing to 20% when all hospitality venues are added.
However, data from Public Health England shows that food outlets and restaurants accounted for 7% of all cases on average during the four weeks to September 20.
In the week ending September 20, that was just 3.2%.
And an Office for National Statistics (ONS) report released last week found that as closure measures eased over the summer, restaurants, cafes, bars and pubs were the places where the most people gathered. .
What impact could the social blockade have on employment and the economy?
The hospitality industry will be the hardest hit, with more than half a million jobs at risk due to the 10 p.m. curfew, hospitality and bar trade bodies have warned.
UKHospitality, the British Beer and Pub Association and the British Institute of Innkeeping found that almost a quarter (23%) of their members think their businesses will fail before the end of the year without further government support.
One in eight hospitality employees has already been laid off and more are expected to lose their jobs when the leave plan ends in October despite the new Employment Support Plan, according to the survey.
With more restrictions on the horizon, trade bodies have called on the government to clamp down, including a sector-specific employment support package.
The Chancellor has extended the 5% VAT for hotel and tourism businesses until March 2021, instead of January.
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But Kate Nicholls, UKHospitality Chief Executive Officer said: “We need the government to go further in hospitality, recognize the increased restrictions placed on us and bear the full cost of hours not worked.”
“This would be a relatively low cost for a great reward for our workforce.
“Full support to keep people in their jobs during what could be a pretty bleak winter for hospitality would be a big step forward.”
