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The number of people infected with coronaviruses every day in London has dropped to 24, while the north east of England is seeing around 4,000 new infections daily, research suggests.
The infection rate in England also appears to be declining, according to models from Public Health England and the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge.
The data shows that the R value in England is 0.75, firmly below 1.0, which the Prime Minister specified as a requirement for continued relaxation of the blocking measures in the coming months.
the R value it is short for the reproductive rate of the virus.
If R is 1, then a person with the disease infects another person. If it is 3, which Boris Johnson said appeared to be the “natural rate” for the coronavirus, then one person will infect three.
If R falls below 1, then the virus is not spreading to enough people to sustain an outbreak, so it gradually becomes extinct. The closer it is to zero, the faster cases fall.
North East and Yorkshire are 0.8, South West is 0.76, North West is 0.73, South East and East England are 0.71 and Midlands 0.68, according to research.
London’s average rate has dropped to 0.4, meaning that for every 10 people infected, it is likely to spread it to four people.
The figure also means that the capital has gone from being the epicenter of the UK outbreak to having the lowest infection rate in England.
When the closure was announced on March 23, London was seeing more than 200,000 new cases daily, according to the investigation.
But there are now fewer than 24 infections a day in the capital, and with this number halved every 3.5 days, the virus could go away in just a few weeks.
The study will increase pressure on the government to consider lifting the blockade at different speeds in different parts of the country.
Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick alluded to the idea of different rules for different areas over the weekend, when he told the Sophy Ridge Sky Sunday program: “… if we see outbreaks in particular localities, neighborhoods, schools, towns, then we can take particular action in those places as we go through a more sophisticated and longer-term response to control the virus. “
Health Secretary Matt Hancock previously said the government was “analyzing” the possibility.
On Monday, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham told Sky News that the changes to the closing regulations announced by the prime minister on Sunday night were “premature.”
“The prime minister’s statement comes too soon for the northwest and could cause confusion,” he said.
“My message to the people and businesses of Greater Manchester is this: Be cautious and take some time before making changes to your routine.”
Meanwhile, local authority leaders and union bosses have also accused ministers of going too fast in their plans to reopen schools and wanting more local control over their return.
The Local Government Association (LGA) has said that schools should be able to make their own decisions about reopening.
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Councilwoman Judith Blake, chair of the LGA board of children and youth, said parents were “eager” to send their children back to school and more needed to be done to reassure families.
Johnson, announcing his plans to get England out of the lockup, said Reception, Year One and Year 6 students could return as soon as next month.
