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Short-term lockdowns could lead to more people dying from coronavirus, according to a new report.
The researchers have called for “different strategies for different age groups with a greater focus on protecting the elderly and vulnerable.”
Comes like Scotland introduced new rules Ban pubs, restaurants, and cafes from selling alcohol indoors for 16 days starting Friday and suggest Similar local restrictions could be introduced in England..
The University of Edinburgh study reviewed Report 9, the work of Professor Neil Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College London who predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths would occur if steps were not taken to stop the spread of COVID-19.
The Imperial study sparked the far-reaching social restrictions implemented in March, including school closings and the hotel industry.
The researchers used the same model to examine various interventions, including social distancing of people older than 70, social distancing of the entire population, closing of schools and universities, and home isolation of people who develop symptoms. for seven days and 14 days.
The researchers wrote: “The findings of this study suggest that rapid interventions were shown to be highly effective in reducing the peak demand for beds in the intensive care unit (ICU), but also prolonging the epidemic, which in some cases resulted in more long-term deaths. “
They point out that when interventions are lifted, there is still a large proportion of the population susceptible and a substantial number still infected with coronavirus.
“This then leads to a second wave of infections that can result in more deaths, but later,” they wrote.
The authors said that the final number of deaths from COVID-19 depends largely on the age of those infected and not on the total number of cases.
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They added that the model suggests that there must be some sort of prioritization of goals to address the crisis: reduce the number of cases, reduce the death toll, or reduce the burden on intensive care units.
The researchers used 70 million simulated people that matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography and social behaviors.
They examined various interventions, including social distancing of those over 70, social distancing of the entire population, the closure of schools and universities, and home isolation of people who develop symptoms, for seven days and 14 days.
Graeme Ackland, professor of computer simulation at the School of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Edinburgh who led the study, said: “In the short term, school closures helped reduce the severity of the first wave, to the extent that that Nightingale hospitals were not necessary, but the decision has left us more vulnerable to the next waves of infection. “
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Commenting on the study, Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said: “Although the modeled scenario may be unrealistic, it illustrates the general principle that, by itself, the lockdown solves an immediate crisis. without providing a long-term solution.
“Perhaps the key lesson that should be drawn from this study is the caveat that if we allow short-term thinking to dictate our response to COVID-19, we may not make the best decisions to minimize the long-term public health burden. . “
A government spokesman said: “At every stage of our response, we have been guided by expert advice and took decisive action from the beginning to support the NHS and save lives.”
