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The leaked documents reportedly show the government plans to conduct up to 10 million coronavirus tests a day early next year, but critics have called the proposals “wasteful on a cosmic scale.”
The massive testing program would cost £ 100bn, almost what the government spends on the NHS each year (£ 130bn), according to a briefing memorandum seen by the medical journal The BMJ.
A separate document revealed that there were plans to increase the UK’s testing capacity from 350,000 a day today to up to 10 million a day by early 2021.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced ambitious plans for millions of people to get tested for coronavirus every day, in what he characterized as the “Moonshot approach.”
These documents provide more details on what the government hopes to achieve, including plans for private companies GSK, AstraZeneca, Serco and G4S to help carry out the proposals.
But some scientists have already voiced their doubts, while a paper released by the government’s scientific advisory group (SAGE) last week warned that massive tests could lead to more false-positive results.
Anthony Costello, former head of the World Health Organization and professor at UCL, wrote on Twitter: “The PM’s Moonshot nonsense (no science, feasibility, evidence) has been earmarked for £ 100bn, almost the entire NHS budget , with contracts for Astra, Serco and G4S.
“This is waste / corruption on a cosmic scale.”
Others pointed to current problems with the existing test-and-trace program, which has raised concern in recent days after people complained about having to. travel hundreds of miles from home to test.
“This plan conveys boundless optimism, regardless of the huge problems with existing testing and tracing programs,” Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told The BMJ.
“It focuses on only one part of the problem, the tests, and says nothing about what will happen to those who test positive, a particular concern given the low proportion of those who adhere to the advice to isolate themselves, partly due to the lack of support offered. “
He added: “Based on what is presented here, this looks less like Apollo 11, which successfully landed Neil Armstrong, and more like Apollo 13.”
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Professor José Vázquez-Boland, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, was more optimistic about the plans.
“Currently, the focus of testing remains the confirmation of suspected cases (people with symptoms), so it is not understood that most of the community transmission comes from asymptomatic people,” he said.
“Only a mass screening program, such as this alternative plan announced by the prime minister, which involves regular testing of the entire population for asymptomatic transmitters, can keep COVID-19 in check and eventually lead to its eradication.”
In a document released Friday, SAGE said the cheaper and faster tests needed for mass testing were less likely to be able to correctly identify positives and negatives than the tests currently used by the NHS Test and Trace.
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He said that in a population with few infections, testing twice a week with a specificity of 99% would lead to 41% of the population receiving a false positive for six months.
“In such circumstances, rapid follow-up confirmatory tests will be needed to determine whether people should continue to isolate themselves; it is important to quickly isolate infectious people, but efforts will be needed to quickly release false positives,” he said.
But the committee said that using testing as an entry point requirement for particular settings, such as sporting events, could help these activities resume with reduced risk of transmission, but would “require excellent organization and logistics with rapidity and high sensitivity. tests “.
According to plans, the Whitehall memo says the tests will be implemented in workplaces, soccer stadiums, entertainment venues, and also at GP surgeries, pharmacies, schools and other local sites.
Individuals will be issued digital immunity passports that would allow those who test negative to participate in more normal activities.
Those in high-risk occupations or who are more vulnerable, such as hospital staff, ethnic minority groups, and teachers, would be prioritized for regular testing.
The government is relying on technology that “currently does not exist,” says the briefing memorandum, including a 20-minute rapid saliva test being tested in Salford, Greater Manchester.
Dr David Strain, a senior clinical professor at the University of Exeter and chair of the BMA’s medical academic staff committee, said this means the mass testing strategy is “fundamentally flawed.”
“The prime minister’s suggestion that this will be as simple as ‘getting a pregnancy test’ that will give results in 15 minutes is unlikely, if not impossible, on the timescale he was suggesting to get the country back on track,” said.
