Coronavirus R rate now ‘almost 3 in London but below 1 in part of England’

Alarming data estimates that the R coronavirus rate has risen to nearly three in London, with the south on track to catch up with hot spots in the north in a few weeks.

The researchers found that in London, the R rate has reached an estimated 2.86, meaning that each infected person transmits the virus to almost three others.

Three other areas in the south have rates above two, with sharp rises also recorded in the Midlands, but encouraging figures suggest a sharp decline in parts of northern England, which have endured tighter lockdown conditions.

It comes as experts warn that England is at a “tipping point”, with nearly 100,000 new infections occurring every day.

In the southeast the rate is estimated at 2.34, according to a study by Imperial College London and Ipsos MORI, while in the southwest it is 2.06.

Eastern England also has an R number greater than two, and experts estimate it at 2.18.

The rate must remain below 1 for the number of cases to decrease.

It comes amid falling rates in the Northwest and Northeast, which are estimated to have fallen to 1.21 and 0.57 respectively.

Across England, the R rate is estimated at 1.6.

The REACT study, released today, says worrying patterns are emerging in the South.

It read: “We previously reported that the prevalence was highest in the northern parts of England.

“While this is still the case, there are indications that the epidemic may be waning in the Northeast, although there are still marked increases in prevalence among the most vulnerable population 65 and older.”

“The epidemic is now increasing faster in the Midlands and South.

“The patterns of the growth rate and age distribution of the cases in the south are now similar to those seen in the northern regions during the previous two rounds of this study.”

The researchers warned that the country is now in a “critical stage” and said that the increase in hospitalizations and deaths is “inevitable” during the second wave.

It is now feared that the daily rate of new infections could reach higher levels than at the start of the pandemic, with the official death toll in the UK currently at 45,675.

Infection rates have risen in all regions, the new data suggests, and an estimated 128 out of 10,000 people have the virus between October 16 and 25.

The findings are based on randomized tests of 85,000 volunteers across the country.

In their report, the scientists warned that measures must be followed to control the spread in order to contain the pandemic.

It read: “The coexistence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage.

“While some of the current control measures may be too recent to have been reflected in the data reported here, the high prevalence already achieved and the rapid acceleration mean that there will inevitably be a large number of hospitalizations and deaths as a result of the Second wave.

“Whether through regional or national measures, it is now critical to control the virus and put R below one if more hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 are to be avoided.”

Experts say that the virus can usually be detected within 10 days after the initial infection.

Scientists believe that around 960,000 people contract the virus in England each day, with around 96,000 new infections every 24 hours.

Infection rates were highest in Yorkshire and The Humber, where 2.72% of people have the virus, and the Northwest in second with 2.27%, the data reveals.

The Southeast currently has the lowest prevalence with an estimated 0.55% of having the virus.

The report said: “Our data in all previous rounds of our study indicate that at least half of people with detectable viruses will report no symptoms on the day of the test or the week before, therefore studies that are based only in the symptomatic report of the cases they will include estimating the incidence of the population “.

Professor Paul Elliott, program director at Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “These interim findings paint a worrying picture of the situation in England, where we are seeing a nationwide increase in the prevalence of infections, which we know will lead to more hospitalizations and loss of life.

“We are also detecting early signs that areas that previously had low infection rates are following the trends seen in the worst affected areas of the country.

“Now more than ever we must all work together to stop the further spread of the virus and prevent the subsequent overwhelming health service.”

Yesterday, the Department of Health confirmed that the death toll from coronavirus in the UK had risen by 310, with 24,701 new infections confirmed.