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Boris Johnson promised that he will establish a “road map” to ease blocking restrictions next week, after saying the UK has passed the peak of coronavirus infections.
Members of the public have called for a cautious approach to ease the blockade, and a third of people said it shouldn’t happen until there has been a substantial drop in daily deaths, according to a YouGov poll.
An additional 37% said it should not be provided until even more difficult goals have been achieved, even until there are no new cases reported, readily available antibody tests, or until a vaccine is available.
The government has its own tests to ease the blockade, but has it met them?
Test one: the NHS has the ability to provide critical care across the UK
First, the government will examine whether there is capacity to care for seriously ill coronavirus patients.
This can be measured by the number of spare beds in intensive care.
The NHS has approximately doubled its ICU capacity in its pre-existing hospitals to 1,555.
Hospitals have not been overwhelmed by patients so far, and NHS Nightingale hospitals have also been added in some parts of the country, which are designed as overflow facilities.
NHS Nightingale Hospital in London
Nightingale Hospitals have the capacity to treat thousands of COVID-19 patients, but reports so far suggest that they have admitted few patients, something many consider a victory.
However, there has been some criticism that the increased ability to treat coronavirus patients has been at the expense of other care, including cancer treatments.
Despite this, this test appears to have been met.
Test two: a sustained and steady drop in daily coronavirus deaths
The number of daily deaths is likely, even if closely watched, to be the last to show improvement.
This is because the delay between someone becoming infected and recovering or dying can be three to four weeks.
The number of daily hospital deaths in England is estimated to have peaked around April 8 and has been steadily declining since then.
On Monday, the UK reported 350 deaths with coronavirus in hospitals. Although the numbers tend to drop on Mondays due to a weekend delay, this was much less than on previous Mondays.
The picture has become less clear now that community deaths are included, and there are some suggestions that nursing homes could become the new transmission epicenters.
It appears that more data is needed to clarify whether this test has been met.
Test three: infection rate decreased to manageable levels across the board
The infection rate, or Value “R”, means the number of people that each person who contracts the virus ends up infecting.
The R is currently believed to be somewhere between 0.6 and 0.9.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases has steadily decreased, although it is accepted that the actual number of cases is likely to be much greater than the reported number.
This is due to the number of tests, which are currently targeting key workers and those seriously ill in the hospital.
Another way to find out if the infection rate might be low is to see the amount of hospital admissions.
England’s Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said: “The number of new cases has decreased, that is becoming less income, fewer people in the hospital, fewer people in intensive care and we are starting to see that decrease in deaths”.
The infection rate is likely to have decreased satisfactorily, but Sir Patrick said the number of people admitted to the hospital has yet to decrease.
Test four: operational challenges, including testing and EPP, are available, with a supply capable of meeting future demand
The government is close to reaching its goal of screening 100,000 people per day, which it had set for the end of April.
Figures show that 81,611 tests were carried out on Wednesday, although due to a delay in reporting it is still unclear whether the target was reached.
Work has also started on a Contract tracking application which will alert people if they have come into close contact with someone with symptoms, but it is not expected to spread until next week.
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More than a billion items of personal protective equipment (PPE) have been distributed, but there is still concern among health workers about the shortage.
There may be challenges in obtaining PPE for some time as numerous countries are trying to obtain equipment.
So far, it appears that this test has not been met.
Test Five: Trust any adjustment to current measures will not risk a second spike of infections that overwhelms the NHS
The Prime Minister has emphasized that to “avoid disaster,” the fifth test means that the R value should not rise above one.
Boris Johnson said he would not risk a second spike by easing the restrictions too quickly, but said the public will soon be informed when certain closure measures can be relaxed, based on a number of options raised by government scientific advisers.
Downing Street was forced to deny that it had relaxed the fifth test, as the rule had initially stated “to be sure that any adjustment to the current measures will not risk a second spike of infections.”
It was later modified to add that the peak of infections should not “overwhelm the NHS”.
Issue 10 said the wording had simply been revised to match Foreign Minister Dominic Raab’s words on April 16.
We currently do not know for sure what these relaxation measures will be, making it difficult to judge whether this test has been met.
