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The government is in danger of leaving it “too late” for a brief national lockdown to be effective in reducing the rate of coronavirus infections, warned a member of its scientific advisory group.
Professor Andrew Hayward, from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), told Sky News that “more intensive action” is needed across the country to stop the second wave of COVID-19 Infections
He said the government’s three-tiered approach to localized restrictions had “somewhat disrupted” disease transmission and the virus had “slowed down” in some areas under Tier 3 measures.
But he added that this “is not the same as turning it around to decrease.”
Much of the UK is under stricter COVID rules with less than two months until Christmas
Deaths in the UK reach your highest level for five months on Tuesday, when 367 new deaths related to coronavirus and almost 23,000 more cases were registered.
Professor Hayward suggested that a three-week lockout was needed before Christmas, a proposal known as a “circuit breaker.”
“The last time we had a lockdown that lasted four months and one of the reasons for that was because we acted too late,” he told Sky News’ All Out Politics.
“And I think we are in danger of re-entering that situation where we allow cases to escalate to a level where a short shutdown will not be effective enough.”
He added: “It is more effective to act sooner, more lives are saved the sooner you act; I think this should be long before Christmas and very soon.”
Professor Hayward warned that the peak of a second wave of COVID-19 infections this winter could be “less pronounced” but could “last longer” and thus lead to more deaths.
The Daily Telegraph reported Wednesday that Downing Street is working on the assumption that the second wave will be more deadly than the first, based on SAGE projections.
Measures at levels 1, 2 and 3 of the UK blockade system
Earlier, a cabinet minister told Sky News that it is “too early to tell” how people will be able to celebrate Christmas this year, with many people currently banned from socializing with other households either indoors or outdoors.
When asked how people could celebrate in less than two months, Environment Secretary George Eustice told Sky News’ Kay Burley: “The Prime Minister has been very clear, like all of us, that we want people to celebrate Christmas in a way that is as close to normal as possible.
“But it is too early to say exactly what the situation will be at Christmas, and exactly what different parts of the country will or will not be able to do.”
“Obviously, controlling the spread of this virus is paramount, but we also want people to live their lives as close to normal as possible, even at Christmas, which is an incredibly important time for families.”
The Sun reported Wednesday that SAGE’s analysis suggested that the highest level of restrictions, Level 3, might be necessary across England in mid-December.
And SAGE Fellow Professor Sir Mark Walport said it is “not unrealistic” to think that 25,000 people could be hospitalized with coronavirus by the end of November.
Eustice said the “right approach” to respond to the surge in infections was the government’s three-tier system for localized restrictions, which he said ministers “will stick with” despite pressure for a nationwide lockdown of “circuit breakers.”
However, he added that the government “will keep all options open” and ministers are “concerned” about the new spread of the virus.
“We have been monitoring the incidence of this disease and that is why several weeks ago we strengthened those restrictions, why we have been introducing new restrictions in some of those northern towns and cities where there has been an early peak,” he said. .
“We know that, sadly, mortality tends to follow those spikes in incidence for several weeks; we may have started to see that yesterday.”
Eustice said that the incidence of the disease had started to “decline” and that the spread of the virus had “moderated” since the reintroduction of the restrictions since the summer, but admitted that the ministers faced a “very difficult situation”. to fully control. “
He advocated easing national restrictions by the government during the summer, suggesting it was an easier time to get the disease under control.
“We did not see a peak in the summer when we relaxed the closure restrictions, partly because it was summer and there were long days and warmer weather that did not promote the spread of the virus,” said the environment secretary.
“We started to see a rebound in the virus in September, we monitored it very closely and therefore began to reintroduce restrictions later that month and have been refining them with specific steps ever since.
“This is a virus that spreads in the winter months and it is a difficult situation to handle, but I think we are taking the right approach.”
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, whose region is under Level 3 restrictions, warned that “time is running out” for a nationwide lockdown “due to circuit interruption.”
He called on ministers not to “meddle” with his tiered system and instead to be “open-minded about what is going to produce the results, in terms of falling cases, and do the least harm to the economy”.
“In the discussions we had with the government, we heard the medical director, the deputy medical director and the chief scientific advisor say that they do not believe that the tiered system and the small number of shutdowns that have occurred are actually going to deliver the results in terms of drop in cases, “Burnham told Sky News.
“So we hear from the experts that the government is actually taking the wrong path, and that it could go from Level 3 to Level 4 to Level 5 and it would seem that, they fear, that will not be enough.”
