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Another 3,105 cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in the UK, and the number appears to be increasing rapidly, having surpassed 1,000 just a few weeks ago.
In the meantime, coronavirus It is spreading rapidly in Spain and France, and once again we hear dire stories about hospitals overwhelmed with cases at certain critical points.
It looks a lot like the miserable days in March when the illness It was spreading across the country for the first time, so should we panic again?
The short answer is no.
The number of COVID-19 cases appears to be increasing rapidly
We must be cautious and careful and prepare for more cases, and sadly more deaths.
But so far the data points to an outbreak of a markedly different nature than the one we suffered in the spring. And that (cautiously) is good news.
There are two crucial lessons from the last time that we must remember.
The first is that we tend to follow in the footsteps of others.
It may sound implausible, but in March many people were skeptical that Britain could follow in the footsteps of Spain and Italy.
Yet we did, with infections and deaths increasing more or less on the same trajectory, only with a delay of two or three weeks.
The same is happening this time.
The cases in the UK seem to follow precisely the same path that we are seeing in France and Spain.
They also went from having 1,000 to 3,000 cases in about 30 days (actually, Spain was a bit faster, but the rate was quite similar).
And in the same way that France and Spain had 3,000 cases a few weeks ago, the UK will most likely have about 10,000 cases, like Spain today, in a few weeks.
After all, that’s what happened last time, and so far at least, the data suggests we’re following a similar path.
But think about those numbers for a moment. They are going up, yes, but they are not multiplying at the same rate as in the spring.
Back then, deaths (the best metric for the spread of the disease back then) doubled every three to four days. This time, the cases double roughly every 10 days, perhaps every 15.
Those differences matter enormously and this brings us to the second lesson: let’s not forget the power of exponential growth.
Both of the above growth rates are types of exponential growth, however even small differences like this add up very quickly.
Put it this way: it is similar to the difference between the spread of the disease in Germany during the spring and the spread of the disease in Britain and Italy.
And right now what we are seeing in Spain, France and the United Kingdom looks much more like the first than the second.
It is now the early days and it pays to be cautious, very cautious, as these numbers may change soon.
Coronavirus tests take place in South London
Cases may still accelerate in Spain and France.
But actually the latest news from Spain, at least in cases, is tentatively encouraging.
About 9,437 cases in the last 24 hours, and the current daily average has been around that 9,000-10,000 level for the last week.
In fact, based on its own model, the Spanish Ministry of Health calculates that the reproduction rate in your country, that key R number that shows how many people each infected person is transmitting the disease to, is not only below 1 but below 0.5%.
If this can be trusted, it is very good news.
Because, at the risk of repeating myself, look at the data and you will see that we are following in the footsteps of Spain and we must be very attentive to how the disease evolves there.
Hospitalizations are on the rise, as are deaths.
In some parts, including the Spanish capital, the health system is under pressure.
However, while admissions are increasing, evidence suggests they are increasing at a slower rate so far than in the spring.
Some conclusions:
- COVID-19 cases in the UK will continue to rise in the coming weeks. They will plausibly hit 10,000 in a few weeks.
- Hospitalizations will increase
- Deaths will rise
- But the increases should, if it is Spain / France, be gradual
- These are ingredients for caution, but not panic.
There are crucial conditions. Spain’s cases appear to be under control not in the absence of action but following government-imposed measures.
In Spain, they have limited meetings as in the UK through the “rule of six” (their rule is 10). They are not “letting it break.”
And although it has been criticized at the national level, the Spanish monitoring and testing system appears to have remained resistant to the disease.
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Here in the UK, similar rules have been put in place, but there are already concerns about the robustness of the test system, which creaks before the increase in demand.
Insiders say that is not a critical problem for the UK as they hope the “rule of six” is paramount in keeping the spread of the disease low. But we’ll see.
The next few weeks will be crucial and stressful.
The disease will spread and it will also worry.
The test system may not be able to keep up with demand for a few weeks, as the additional capacity is still a few weeks away.
But so far, at least, there is one crucial difference from the first wave of the disease.
So far, this is not the same as we faced last time. Hopefully we can keep saying that for many more weeks.
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