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Five of the 22 European regions with the highest coronavirus infection rates are in the north of England, according to Sky News analysis.
Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Northumberland and Tyne and Wear, West Yorkshire and Lancaster were among the top 5% of areas in Europe with infection rates of more than 350 cases per 100,000 people between September 21 and October 4 .
The Spanish capital of Madrid continues to be the region with the most COVID-19 infection rate among European countries analyzed by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).
Over the past two weeks, the city has had a rate of 754 cases per 100,000 residents.
The Estonian region of Ida-Viru is very close, with 741 cases per 100,000.
Merseyside is in third place, with 685 cases per 100,000.
Spain has more regions, one third (seven), among the 22 highest infection rates than any other European country.
The United Kingdom is in second place, with five regions, and the Czech Republic is in third place with four regions.
Analysis of recent infection rates found that Europe is still grappling with high infection rates, with the ECDC defining rates of more than 60 cases per 100,000 as high.
Two thirds of the 420 regions analyzed exceed that threshold.
Increase in cases in those over 65
The number of COVID-19 cases began to rise in late summer in most European countries.
The increase was mainly driven by young people, but now cases are increasing among the population over 65.
According to the ECDC, 18 countries are experiencing high levels or sustained increases in that older age group over the past two weeks.
The countries most affected in April and May, such as Spain, Belgium, France and the United Kingdom, are registering higher infection rates than before.
However, Germany and Italy, among the countries most affected in spring, are coping better with the situation, as although cases are increasing, they are still well below spring rates.
Virologist Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor at the University of Leeds School of Medicine, said Germany’s healthcare system is in a “much better condition” than the UK’s, so it has been able to cope better with the pandemic.
He added: “Germany had a better set of messages than the UK and Merkel brought people with her, they heard.
“They implemented testing and tracing from the beginning, and it worked. Cases will continue to increase as they have land borders, but there is better enforcement.”
“Italy is very well prepared now and because they have mitigations like social distancing, they will have fewer people in the hospital at the same time, so they will be better able to cope.”
The number of cases depends largely on the number of tests that each country performs, so the positivity rate, that is, the number of cases found in 100 tests, is important.
The risk of overloading hospitals
An increase in older people receiving COVID-19 will likely lead to an increase in hospital admissions and later deaths.
Dr. Griffin said: “We are already seeing an increase in hospital admissions.
“In the UK last week we already had several thousand people on ventilators and some hospitals are seeing wards fill up.
“That will only increase as more older people acquire it; there is always a delay in hospital admissions after an increase in cases, and that is what we are starting to see across Europe.”
Weekly admissions in most European countries remain relatively low, compared to previous levels. But the data shows a slight increase, although not at the same rate as in March and April.
In spring, an increase in the number of admissions was followed by an increase in the number of deaths.
Although the number of people with COVID-19 needing hospital treatment is increasing again during the fall, deaths are still relatively low. But this does not mean that people are not dying and the number of deaths could rise again in the coming months.
With the coming of winter, the flu problem is also a big concern for hospitals, but Dr. Griffin believes that many European countries are prepared to handle both.
However, he added: “I think this winter is going to be terrible for the UK and we are going to look at Europe with envy.”
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Methodology
The countries included in the regional analysis for infection rates are: Spain, Portugal, Ireland, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic, Greece, Estonia, Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia , Cyprus, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, Iceland, Luxembourg, Malta, Norway, Sweden, Slovenia, Slovakia and Romania.
Data comes from ECDC, except for the UK and France, for which COVID-19 case data comes from their national governments and population figures from Eurostat’s NUTS division.
The regional division used is the standardized Nomenclature of Territorial Units (NUTS), except in Estonia, which uses its national administrative division.
High values are defined as at least: 60 per 100,000 for the 14-day case notification rates (total and by age); 10 per million for death rates; 3% for positive tests; 25% of the maximum rate to date during the pandemic for occupancy rates and admissions to hospitals or ICUs.
