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The Eat Out to Help Out scheme caused a “significant” increase in new coronavirus infections, a new study suggests.
According to the University of Warwick, the sharp increase in COVID-19 infection clusters emerged a week after the scheme began.
The government initiative was designed to boost the economy after the national shutdown and allowed pubs and restaurants to offer deeply discounted meals on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays in August.
University research suggests that between 8% and 17% of newly detected clusters of infections can be linked to the scheme.
Areas where there was a high uptake of Eat Out to Help Out also saw a decline in new infections a week after the scheme ended.
Places that experienced high rainfall around lunch and dinner ended up seeing lower infection rates than areas that enjoyed more pleasant weather.
Restaurants that participated in Eat Out to Help Out saw an increase in visits of between 10% and 200% compared to the same period in 2019, but academics concluded that the economic benefits of the scheme were short-lived.
Dr. Thiemo Fetzer said the scheme “contributed to community transmission” and “acceleration of the second wave.”
He told Sky News: “The UK saw a massive explosion of cases in a way that was not seen in other countries.
“It is that scheme that has helped cause a second earlier closure and restrictions in the restaurant sector that I was determined to help financially.”
Toby Phillips, executive director of the Oxford COVID-19 response tracker at the Blavatnik School of Government, said the findings were credible and aligned with his previous work in analyzing the increase in restaurant visits during the Eat Out to Help scheme. Out.
He added: “The Eat Out to Help Out plan was part of an overall policy and communications package over the summer that encouraged people to go out and adopt a ‘back to normal’ mentality.
“That creates this whiplash when one month they tell you ‘Get out there, have confidence, go back to work, get back to normal’, and in the next month a new level scheme is being implemented.”
He told Sky News that the “pendulum swing” was not conducive to encouraging the kinds of behavior necessary to live with the virus long-term.
“We must not subsidize people to gather inside,” he said.
Earlier this month, Boris Johnson admitted that Eat Out to Help Out may have contributed to the rise in COVID-19 cases.
“To the extent that that plan could have helped spread the virus, obviously we must counter that with the discipline and measures that we are proposing,” he told the BBC.
A Treasury spokesman said: “We do not recognize these figures, which, as the study itself admits, are calculations” from the back of the envelope. “
“Many other European counterparts have seen a spike in cases, regardless of whether similar measures have been introduced for the hotel industry.
“We continue to work closely with businesses to help them stay safe from COVID.”