[ad_1]
It’s only been three weeks since Boris Johnson convened his cabinet to set the government’s agenda for the fall after the summer break.
He was characteristically optimistic.
While there would be “some turbulence ahead” with more of the “miserable COVID-19“To come, the nation was” recovering “and the prime minister was” absolutely confident that we will be able to cope with the outbreaks. “
The prime minister will address the public on Tuesday
September isn’t even over, and this week the Prime Minister it has a very different message to convey to the public.
the “inevitable” second wave of coronavirus is on its way and finds itself in the eye of the storm again, with extremely difficult judgment calls to take on how to deal with the outbreaks while weighing public health concerns not only against economic devastation, but also for the public and politics. reaction of a tired country and restless parliamentarians.
On Monday, his scientific advisers, Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance, will give a television talk. on the latest coronavirus data, and on Tuesday the prime minister is expected to speak to us directly himself.
Bringing in your science advisers to address the public is designed to be a wake-up call, to remind us that the threat is still with us.
Cases are increasing rapidly and we are … to quote Professor Whitty, at a “critical point in the pandemic”.
Infections reached a four-month high this weekend, with 4,422 cases recorded on Saturday, and are doubling every seven to 10 days, according to the prime minister’s scientific advisers.
The UK’s trajectory is now six weeks behind France and Spain and targeting a substantial number of cases by mid-October if left unchecked.
Prime Minister has said a second wave is ‘inevitable’
“During the summer, people relaxed and the cases were minor. People have forgotten how dangerous this is,” said a government figure.
“Chris and Patrick are going to speak directly to the public about where we are and the increase in cases in other countries. It has not disappeared and has returned quickly.”
:: Subscribe to the daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
The hard truths delivered by experts to help pave the way for another round of restrictions that the prime minister will announce this week.
The question is, how far does it go?
Be it a hawk or a dove, ministers agree that a total national shutdown should be avoided at all costs, so it is now a question of how far the government decides to go before shutting down the country altogether.
“They are looking at all shades of gray and that is an exercise in data,” continued the government figure.
Boris Johnson’s scientific advisers have proposed a brief “circuit break” of national restrictions for a short period of time to try to squash the disease, but this has not yet been approved, according to the informants of Issue 10.
Boris Johnson recently visited a laboratory in Oxford
Other options could see the introduction of curfews or new rules to try to further reduce social interactions and restrict family living.
“It’s all in the mix,” said a senior government official.
“We could do a curfew, we can go to a circuit break.”
Ministers and advisers are closely watching the data to see if recent changes to the six person rule, introduced last Monday, and the stricter enforcement rules could change behavior and reduce social contact.
But that means waiting to see if the first data shows changes or improvements, and the PM might well decide that he wants to anticipate the disease and act more quickly.
He is, say a couple of colleagues who know him well, keenly feeling the weight of responsibility as he stands between his scientific and economic teams.
On one side is Chris Whitty, the medical director, Patrick Vallace, the senior scientific advisor, and his secretary of health. Matt hancock – all pushing for a “safety first” approach, the consequences of the late shutdown in March may still be fresh in their minds.
In the other is his chancellor Rishi Sunak, his business secretary, Alok Sharma, and a number of senior officials warned of the economic – and long-term health – devastation of more draconian measures.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak warns of economic devastation from more draconian measures
“The prime minister is in a very difficult situation because everything depends on him,” one of his top ministers told me last week.
“The prime minister’s instinct is that he has to keep this virus under control, because if there is a spike, it falls on his shoulders, I feel sorry for him.”
There is also the question of public and political reaction.
The government’s Scientific and Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) reported last week that only one in five people reporting symptoms in England was fully isolated at home for the required two weeks at the end of August.
With compliance on the wane, the government is testing the stick approach, announcing over the weekend fines of up to £ 10,000 in England for those who refuse to self-isolate if they test positive or are contacted by the test and trace system after having been in contact with an infected person.
Ministers hope it will help reduce the number of new cases. The risk is that it discourages people with symptoms from getting tested in the first place, and the circulation of the virus continues undetected.
Not only is the public running out of patience, the prime minister is also facing pressure from some of his MPs, who don’t like radical action being taken without any consultation and want more parliamentary oversight.
To that end, some parliamentarians, led by the chairman of the powerful 1922 auxiliary committee, Sir Graham Brady, intend to try to redress the emergency situation. COVID-19 Laws, which will be renewed later this month, to allow for a parliamentary vote whenever new emergency powers are used or restrictions are introduced.
The unease is mounting with a minister telling me that the parliamentary party is upset by what they see as Mr. Hancock “exaggerating what was intended in the original legislation.”
“There is a genuine feeling that he has abused goodwill and reckoning,” the minister said.
“I don’t think the party will agree to give him the license again.”
The party may agree to new measures, such as a short period of national restrictions, but it will demand more oversight, and the prime minister might be wise to accept Sir Graham’s amendment and avoid another showdown with the benches.
:: Subscribe to the daily podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker
That shifting dynamic with his party is a huge game changer for a prime minister who came to power with a large majority and a mandate to change the course of this country.
Instead, you’re at the forefront of an ongoing health crisis as you try to navigate the second wave of this virus, and you’re doing so with a restless party and a weary audience.
Three weeks ago, Johnson promised his cabinet and the country calmer waters ahead, but now they seem a world away.
