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Boris Johnson’s ‘dangerous’ coronavirus strategy will lead to more outbreaks and blockages, a panel of ‘alternative SAGE’ experts warned today.
Independent scientists say the prime minister’s goal of crushing infections and ensuring that the NHS is not overwhelmed until a vaccine is ready is “silly.”
This is because GPs and councils have no idea how many people in their community suffer from the disease due to the government’s centralized “top-down” approach, they say.
They ask that local public health officials have the powers and resources to track, assess and isolate patients and prevent further waves of the virus.
The Independent SAGE group, led by former chief scientific adviser Sir David King, also criticized the new “alert” message, saying it is ambiguous and confusing.
He has written a scathing report containing 19 detailed recommendations for the government to move forward.
In it, the group of 13 members of experts:
- Crush the government’s decision to stop testing and tracing contracts in March and “allow the epidemic to spread and develop collective immunity.”
- He sharply criticizes the “stay alert” and “control the virus” message, saying it is ambiguous and confusing.
- Accusing daily government statistics of being ‘inaccurate, incomplete and selective’, and saying that the Office of Statistics Regulation should have control of the data.
- Ask why ministers have abandoned handwashing and hygiene awareness campaigns and are calling for their redeployment.
- Demand hospitals stop sending COVID-19 patients back to nursing homes.
- Tell the government to address the disproportionate impact on older people and BAME communities.
- Urge ministers to promote the 14-day quarantine for people with symptoms instead of seven days.
- Note that it would be “silly” to have a vaccine soon, with “recurrent local outbreaks” possible for at least a year.
- Urge ministers to give local public health teams the power and resources to track and trace every case, rather than being “ignored” in favor of private companies.
- Note that the existing mathematical model of the critical reproduction rate ‘R’ is ‘out of date in three to four weeks’.
Sir David King, former chief scientific adviser to the Government, led a press conference with his group Independent Sage today, criticizing the Government’s ‘dangerous’ coronavirus strategy
Speaking at a virtual conference this afternoon, Sir David said: “Since the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic, the government has told us that they are” following the science. “
However, in the weeks and months that followed, it has become increasingly clear that this is simply not the case.
“We detect ambivalence in the government’s strategic response, with some advisers promoting the idea of simply ‘flattening the curve’ or ensuring that the NHS is not overwhelmed.
‘We find this attitude counterproductive and potentially dangerous. Without suppression, we will inevitably see a faster return of local epidemics and face the possibility of more partial or national blockades. ”
“It would be foolish to trust a vaccine soon: the government must prepare to invest now in decentralized local health systems.”
The report will be sent to the Prime Minister, the current Scientific Adviser and the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
The report urges the government to empower local health care systems with the power to test, track and isolate policies amid ciricism from Public Health England’s centralized ‘Control-freak’ approach.
Professor Allyson Pollock, former director of the Institute of Health and Society at Newcastle University, said today at the conference: ‘It is an enigma as to why contact monitoring was stopped on 12 March.
‘They gave us two reasons: that it was not effective and that there were not enough resources.
‘Tracking contacts is the daily bread of public health and local communities must do it locally.
“It is a great disappointment that the government has not rebuilt [a team of tracers]. Keeping track of contacts is not difficult, but we well need tens of thousands of workers. ”
Public Health England (PHE) had fewer than 300 employees to track contacts operating at just nine regional centers spanning 151 top-tier local authorities.
By March 12, when all community testing and contact tracing stopped, PHE had only contacted 3,500 people, of whom about 125 confirmed that the tests were positive.
Decisions about when to loosen the social distancing rules are being informed by the advice provided by the Government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).
But SAGE is increasingly under fire not only for its transparency approach but also for the advice it is providing.
Sir David created his own ‘independent’ panel of experts to make his recommendations public and transparent.
The panel has asked the government to address why poor people are expected to risk their lives “to jump-start the economy while the wealthiest people remain in the security of their homes.”
It says the government should continue the leave plan in its current form for workers who cannot be guaranteed safe working and transportation conditions.
The report also points to the risk of basing decisions about whether to lift the lock on an ‘R number’ (the average number of people infected by an infected person) based on data that says they are four weeks behind schedule.
