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Britain could suffer 40,000 coronavirus deaths in the first wave of the outbreak, a leading public health expert warned today.
Professor Anthony Costello of University College London criticized the government’s handling of the crisis, saying it was “too slow” to react.
Almost 14,000 people in Britain have died of COVID-19 already in hospitals, but the actual death toll is feared to be higher due to a delay in registration and the inability to include deaths in nursing homes. Only the United States, Italy, Spain and France have had more deaths.
Presenting evidence to parliamentarians today, he said Britain could experience tens of thousands more deaths before the first wave of the deadly infection ends.
He warned that it could take up to six more waves before at least 40 million Britons have been infected to develop the nation’s collective immunity.
However, Professor Costello, a former World Health Organization official, also said in a newspaper interview that the UK could be affected by up to ten waves.
Parliamentarians were also told that health care personnel are “really concerned” about the safety of patients who are compromised if workers are widely dispersed.
And the director of the Royal College of Nursing revealed that sick NHS workers are forced to drive two hours away for a coronavirus test.
In other developments to the coronavirus crisis engulfing Britain today:
- The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge revealed that they raised their children at home during the Easter holidays without telling them anything;
- London Mayor Sadiq Khan called for mandatory masks to be worn on tubes and buses;
- Nicola Sturgeon hit the government secret and urged ministers to treat the public as adults;
- Questions were raised about the UK coronavirus detection policy after 15,000 people emerged flying to Britain without testing every day;
- The 1966 England World Cup winner and Leeds United legend Norman Hunter died at the age of 76, a week after being admitted to the hospital with coronavirus;
- A diabetic mother of three children died with coronavirus one week after giving birth to her third daughter.
- Hopes for coronavirus were raised after an experimental Ebola drug was discovered to help critically ill patients recover within a week.
Professor Anthony Costello criticized the government’s handling of the crisis, saying that it is “a total disaster” and that the United Kingdom has been wrong every step of the way.
Presenting evidence to parliamentarians today, Professor Costello said Britain could experience tens of thousands more deaths before the first wave of the deadly infection ends.
Today, in the House of Commons Select Health Committee, Professor Costello said: “This wave could see 40,000 deaths by the time it ends.”
Health chiefs have already admitted that the UK would have achieved a “good result” if it could keep the COVID-19 death toll below 20,000.
The outbreak, which started spreading on British soil on February 28, almost a month before the government sent the UK to close, has killed 13,729 Britons.
But the actual death toll is feared to be up to 50 percent higher due to a delay in recording hospital deaths and the inability to include deaths in nursing homes.
Britain was sent to a blockade on March 23 after an apocalyptic prediction that 500,000 people could die from the SARS-CoV-2 virus without immediate action.
Scientists at Imperial College London estimated that with strict measures to curb the spread of the virus, the number of eventual deaths would be around 20,000.
Other leading world scientists have projected that the UK could see more than 60,000 deaths and be the worst affected nation in Europe.
But the same University of Washington team behind that startling figure has revised its prediction to around 23,000, closer to the Number 10 estimate.
On the committee, Professor Costello also warned that Britain could face several more waves of COVID-19 before it develops a national tolerance.
He said: ‘Recent estimates, even from the chief scientific director, is after this wave that we could have only 10-15 percent of the population infected.
“So the idea of collective immunity would mean another five, six waves, perhaps, to reach 60 percent.” Last night he said the UK could have 10 more waves.
In a scathing interview, Professor Costello told the Daily Telegraph: “We will not get collective immunity if what the latest models show is correct.”
It noted a Dutch study that found that only three percent of people have developed antibodies, substances produced by the body in response to infection.
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned that 60 percent of Britons, 40 million people, need to be infected to delay the spread of the virus.
This raised concerns that the government planned to adopt the controversial collective immunity policy to keep Britain running.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock was forced to address the backlash to confirm that the controversial strategy “was not our goal or policy.”
Herd immunity implies that a large proportion of the population can become infected with the virus to achieve massive immunity and prevent future waves.
It is usually accomplished through vaccines, but without a proven medication or jab, people would die unnecessarily if they were allowed to become infected.
COVID-19’s death rate is estimated to be around 0.5 percent, meaning that 200,000 could die through a collective immunity strategy without medical treatment.
Professor Costello, director of the global health team at University College London, fears that Number 10 is still seeking herd immunity.
He told The Telegraph: “They are still talking about flattening the curve, which implies that they are seeking collective immunity.”
Flattening the curve is the term given to control an outbreak, spread cases over a longer period, and ease pressure on overwhelmed hospitals.
Professor Costello, a former director of maternal, child and adolescent health at the World Health Organization, said Downing Street has to change policy.
Surprising models from Imperial College London saw the government change course after scientists warned that up to 500,000 people could die without action.
The chart shows the daily average of deaths from coronavirus in the UK for the past seven days, according to official figures. The drop at the end shows that the numbers drop for two days, the first drop since the crisis began. Although it could be a sign that the numbers are stagnating, Chris Whitty said yesterday that he expected an increase in deaths today as officials catch up with a delay in reporting on Easter.
Explaining the current strategy, he told the newspaper: “What we should have done is crush the epidemic and then keep it under control.”
Professor Costello will present evidence to the Commons Health Committee today, where he is expected to warn of repeated waves in Britain.
In the same session, Hancock will face questions from MPs about the response to the coronavirus crisis in Britain.
Yesterday, Issue 10 announced that Britain’s closure would last for at least another three weeks despite growing alarm over the economic consequences.
Professor Costello accused the Government of being a “single club golfer” for relying solely on a lockdown job.
He said: “It should be combined with testing, tracking and digital applications that have been used so successfully in South Korea.”
South Korea bucked the global trend and decided against a blockade to contain its COVID-19 outbreak, which peaked in February.
Officials with the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention only recorded 10,000 cases of the deadly virus. They tested thousands of other suspicious cases.
Britain has promised to run 100,000 tests a day by the end of April, but figures show that it is currently running fewer than 20,000 swabs a day.
Last night’s data showed that only 18,665 tests were performed on Wednesday, despite the Prime Minister’s spokesperson’s claim that the UK can perform 35,000 per day.
The UK gave up testing all suspected patients at the start of the outbreak, to the fury of the WHO, which said the pandemic cannot be fought blindfolded.
And the ministers also stopped tracking close contacts of infected patients, allowing the virus to spread uncontrollably.
Research for MailOnline by Redfield & Wilton found that 80 percent would not feel safe going back to everyday life right now.
About half the public is now resigned to the draconian “ social distancing ” restrictions that will be implemented in June
A graph showing the number of new infections in various countries, starting on the day they first registered five infections. The graph shows a moving average, which means it shows trends in the data rather than exact figures. The Y axis is scaled due to the large difference in numbers between the worst affected countries, such as the United States and Great Britain, and the least affected countries, such as Australia and South Korea. On a uniform scale graph, readings from the worst affected countries would show a much steeper curve
Professor Costello also said that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the main advisory panel for Number 10, “has been wrong.”
It occurs when the government is under increasing pressure to reveal the identities of the dozens of experts who are part of the group.
Parliamentarians have warned that a lack of transparency could damage public confidence in the official response to the crisis, which has already drawn criticism.
Government sources said members of the group and its committees had received death threats, fueled by Britain’s response to the pandemic.
It occurs when Dutch researchers found yesterday that only three percent of the population has developed antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The number is an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have had the disease.
Ministers in the European country, home to 17 million people, said it means that several hundred thousand people may have been infected.
A study of the city in the center of the German outbreak found that up to 15 percent of people were already infected with the virus.
Other research has shown that many recovered coronavirus patients have barely detectable signs of past infections.
A Chinese study last week revealed that a third of previous patients have very low levels of antibodies in their blood, which could make their analysis difficult.
British experts said the finding explains why the UK has repeatedly delayed the release of the tests to the public, despite promises that they were in the works.
