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Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will speak on Saturday in a bid to unblock talks on a post-Brexit trade deal.
Why is Boris Johnson talking to Ursula von der Leyen on the phone?
After nine months of negotiations on the future relationship between the UK and the EU, the two main negotiators, Michel Barnier and David Frost, are rubbing their red lines in key areas, and now it requires political intervention. Some of those red lines will need to be pink, at the very least, for a deal to be secured. That requires political direction. Frost and Barnier issued a joint statement Friday night calling for a temporary halt to their talks.
“After a week of intense negotiations in London, the two main negotiators agreed today that the conditions for an agreement are not met, due to significant divergences on the playing field, governance and fisheries,” Barnier and Frost said in their release.
“On this basis, they agreed to stop the talks to inform their directors about the status of the negotiations.”
What is the problem?
Despite the headlines, fishing is not a deal breaker. Downing Street reported that last-minute demands from the EU for a 10-year transition period for changes in access to fishing for the European fleet in British waters had shaken the negotiation. But the two sides have been discussing the terms of a transition period for months and a compromise will be reached. The biggest problems lie in Barnier’s demands for provisions to ensure Brussels can unilaterally counter British economic interests if the UK deviates from EU environmental, labor and social standards. For the government, it is a matter of principle that Westminster policy makers are not bound to follow EU standards.
There is a dispute over how to define the common high standards from which none will back down. As EU and UK policies unfold, there is still no agreement on a mechanism to ensure that undercutting has consequences. Meanwhile, the EU is concerned about the future UK regime to control domestic subsidies or state aid. He wants an independent regulator in the UK to act on shared principles built into the treaty with the option of taking unilateral action to suspend parts of the deal or apply tariffs when a subsidy is feared to distort trade.
For Downing Street, this smacks of EU state aid rules being enforced in the UK through the back door. In short, Johnson has always said that Brexit is about divergence, but the EU does not want to offer ‘zero fee, zero quota’ access to its single market to British companies if they can operate on lower cost bases due to different regulations. in the United Kingdom. It is a question of self-protection.
What will happen?
Saturday is not the day of the deal. Everything agreed in terms of marking the red lines will be passed on to the negotiators who will work on the legal text. This will then be presented to the EU ambassadors in Brussels and the cabinet in Westminster on Sunday for scrutiny. Only then will it be clear if there is a deal.
It’s plausible that it’s a no-deal day if both Johnson and Von der Leyen take a rigid approach to these issues. UK government sources have said there is only a 50% chance of success.
Barnier was quite depressed when he left London for Brussels on Saturday morning, telling reporters that the two sides would have to see if there was “still” a way forward. EU sources suggest, however, that the agreement is within reach and the problems can be solved. At Von der Leyen, Johnson is grappling with a negotiating partner who desperately wants a deal and is willing to challenge resistance from some member states on concessions. Much depends on whether the prime minister feels the same way.
