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Just a year later, a good part of that optimism has turned to frustration and agitation. Despite Johnson pulling the UK out of the European Union and scoring a landslide electoral victory, there are fears that the prime minister’s desire to end the Brexit story on a personal note of triumph is clouding his thinking.
In prepared remarks sent ahead of a speech Johnson is expected to deliver ahead of the eighth round of EU negotiations starting on Tuesday, the Prime Minister called for a deal with Europe by October 15. “It doesn’t make sense to think of timelines that go beyond that point. If we can’t agree by then, then I don’t see that there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should both accept it and move on,” Johnson said.
However, some Eurosceptics worry that Johnson is setting the stage for concessions to win a last-minute deal that he can claim as a major victory, avoiding the economic fallout of a no-deal cliff. Others worry that the recent breakups are a theater, designed to make any deal seem like such a diplomatic feat that it overshadows any concessions.
There is some basis for this fear. Johnson’s previous deal with the EU came after months of declaring that he would either renegotiate May’s deal or leave the EU without one. The clock ticked as the first one did not advance; the latter seemed inevitable. Suddenly, a deal was struck in Brussels just 14 days before the no-deal deadline, a deal that closely resembled the one reached in May and one that many Eurosceptics, including Johnson, hated and voted against.
Johnson’s mobile position on Brexit mattered less at the time, as this deal only covered how the UK would leave the EU, not the more permanent future relationship. The fact that Johnson stood his ground and took on Brussels was evidence enough to many Eurosceptics that he would do the same later.
People who have recently served in government can see how this result could become a reality. David Davis, a longtime Brexit supporter and former UK Brexit secretary, believes there are “three options that are equally likely”: no deal, lots of micro deals and a free trade deal. “If we are going to get to option three, then there will need to be a lot more public and counter demands to pave the way for compromise.”
Tim Montgomerie, who previously served as Johnson’s advisor, says they “like to be the people who pull a rabbit out of the hat at the last minute, which right now would be perfect for them. They don’t run marathons, they run sprints, so they don’t I have a lot of long-term strategy. I think this makes a last minute Brexit compromise that can be seen as a victory an attractive prospect. ”
And as Anand Menon, professor of international politics at King’s College London, says, “At this point it will really seem like a success if you get some kind of deal, regardless of the content. It is absolutely true that talking about the likelihood of no agreement should Given the intransigence of the EU, it will appear that Johnson has achieved the impossible. ”
Members of Johnson’s Conservative Party see why this approach might appeal, even if it upsets the Brexit hardliners in their party. “There would be a dispute with the Brexiteer purists, but she would take with her the vast majority of Tory MPs who support the exit if she declares it a win. Not to mention many of the former Labor voters in the North who voted for Johnson.
This calculation that Johnson could see merit in a public Brexit win combined with minimal risk of backlash from his advocates is what sources say is scaring hardliners who used to support Brexit.
“Many MPs are waiting for a big concession to reach an agreement. They are reluctant to call the government in public, but they are pushing a lot behind the scenes,” says a high-ranking conservative figure whose work in the party would be compromised by speaking on the record . “I think the government is not talking about any agreement to reassure the hardliners that they are being firm with Brussels so that when they make a concession they have the benefit of the doubt.”
Unfortunately for the government, the toughest Brexit supporters have been here before. “These things can no longer be disguised. The government has imposed such a hard line on sovereignty, so I don’t see how they could pull a rabbit out of the hat and expect us to be happy. We have all become experts at this,” he says another former cabinet minister who is currently lobbying the government on Brexit and did not want to be identified.
A third former Conservative cabinet minister and prominent Brexit supporter said: “Many are sitting in small majorities who might be shocked by a perceived betrayal, probably centered on an event like an exploding concession.”
Euroskeptics on the edge
The word treason is important. Johnson has suffered waves of public criticism from Conservative MPs for economic decisions made during the pandemic that, on the surface, do not seem very conservative. The third former minister went on to explain that some parliamentarians “are very concerned about not knowing what is going on in the prime minister’s head”, and that many are “assuming that he is going to try to get out of trouble” in order to appeal to his new voters, rather than the traditional conservative base. They added that this perception of a willingness to move from the bottom up on economic issues was making longtime Eurosceptics nervous.
When CNN reached out to a former Brexit activist to ask about any perceived betrayal, they erupted: “I don’t care what other MPs say and I don’t see why that has given journalists reason to speculate. To retake control and control. Prime Minister has made it clear that this is what we will do. I have nothing more to say about it, “before hanging up.
The senior conservative figure explained that such frustration with journalists asking questions about an alleged Brexit betrayal could be because this faction suspects that if Johnson makes a concession and sells it as a trump, there is little they can do about it. “If you’re hardcore, what do you do when it comes to parliament? You could vote against it, but then you risk having your whip taken away and forced to sit outside after Brexit. Ultimately, it’s probably better. to be part of the happy ending and say you were on the right side of the story instead of being a ‘Debbie depressive’, no matter how much you hate the deal. “
This could be an illusion. Johnson’s former enemy, Nigel Farage, recently wrote that any final deal will not be the “true freedom” he had dreamed of. And history tells us that Farage is very effective in eliminating angry voters, building a powerful political movement, and seriously hurting conservatives.
There is still a long way to go before Brexit ends. The EU believes a deal must be reached by mid-October to be ratified in time for Dec. 31, giving Johnson plenty of time to convince himself one way or another.
It’s worth noting that Downing Street dismisses these claims as speculation, despite difficulties with the talks. A senior adviser to the prime minister said: “We are serious about leaving without a deal. We are not cheating. If the EU does not take a more realistic approach to the issues of state aid and fisheries, then we will have to go on. Australia’s terms. They are insisting that we reproduce the current rules that are at odds with our status as an independent nation. ”
And there are many Conservative MPs who say that when it comes to Brexit, their leader will act in the best interest of the UK, whether he reaches a deal with Brussels or not.
However, as Johnson’s inner circle grows tighter and his strategy more secretive, as often happens when negotiations reach a crescendo, the next few weeks could be very uncomfortable for those former Johnson loyalists who have long dreamed of. with true independence.
