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Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has risen to a record 17 points as the US election enters its final race, an opinion poll by Opinium Research and the Guardian shows.
About 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden, while only 40% say they will vote for the incumbent president, the poll shows.
The 17-point gap is even larger than the 57% -41% margin found by CNN earlier this month. He is just shy of the popular vote lead that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory in 1984. Four years later, Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis edged George HW Bush by 17 points only to suffer defeat, but that poll was conducted. in July so Bush had enough time to recover.
With only three weeks to go until Election Day and millions of votes already cast, some Republicans fear defeat in the races for the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Ed Rollins, who advises a pro-Trump super political action committee, told the New York Times: “The president’s political environment is terrible. It’s an uphill battle. “
When asked by the Times if Trump can still turn things around, Rollins replied, “It’s done.”
Opinium’s findings for The Guardian suggest that a hectic month saw the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the disastrous performance of Trump’s debate, and a coronavirus outbreak in the White House that infected himself The president swung the pendulum decisively in favor of the Democrats.
Biden has gained five percentage points among undecided voters since September. Democrats also injected momentum into existing supporters, and Biden voters are now more likely to turn out, rising from 75% in September to 82% this month.
The former vice president now leads health care, race relations, employment, and even the economy (45% to 43%), which is generally considered Trump’s top issue. His reputation as a successful businessman was affected by a New York Times investigation into his tax affairs.
The research also exposes some key differences from the 2016 election when Trump outpointed Hillary Clinton in the electoral college.
Both Trump and Clinton were historically unpopular. The president again has a negative approval rating of -11%, with two in five (42%) in total disapproval of how he is handling the presidency. But this time Biden has a strong positive approval rating of + 18%. More than half (52%) of voters approve of his handling of his campaign.
Clinton also fared poorly on sexistically charged “likeability” issues and which candidate voters would prefer to go out for a beer with. But in 2020 voters say Biden is nicer than Trump by a 57% to 32% margin.
And while Trump’s “Crooked Hillary” label and accusations seemed to hold up, his attempts to portray Biden as mentally unstable seem not to be enough. In fact, voters say that Biden, 77, has better mental stamina than Trump, 74, by a margin of 48% to 44%.
Opinium surveyed 2,003 American adults ages 18 and older from October 8-12. Interviews were conducted online, sampled, and weighted to match the demographics of the US adult population, as well as to take into account education level and previous vote in recent elections.
Trump’s core support is notoriously loyal, and he is still rallying in his resurrected campaign rallies, but there is evidence that some Americans turned against him, even in battle states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nearly two in three (62%) of former Trump voters (who voted for him in 2016 but will not this year) say his handling of the coronavirus pandemic is the reason they changed their vote. Furthermore, nearly half (47%) of former Trump voters say their personality and behavior contributed to the change.
Democrats have said that a massive victory is the surest way to avoid lengthy legal disputes that could even escalate into street violence. Trump has spent months seeking to undermine the credibility of the election in general and voting by mail in particular.
Opinium found that Biden’s leadership is based on the success of the vote-by-mail, which is likely to reach record levels during the pandemic. About 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump, while 42% intend to vote for Biden. But when it comes to mail-in voters, 75% intend to vote for Biden and only 22% intend to vote for Trump.
As a result, the United States may witness a so-called “red mirage” in which Trump appears to be winning based on early in-person vote counting, only to be overtaken by Biden’s mail-in ballots hours or a day later. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night.
There is fear that Trump will use that time to spread conspiracy theories and declare victory. Half (50%) of voters worry that if the president loses the election, he will not yield. There is a partisan divide: Two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters are concerned the election will be rigged.
Meanwhile, Republicans are rushing to confirm Amy Coney Barrett in supreme court before Election Day. More than half (55%) of Americans think the court would lean toward a conservative point of view if Barrett joined it. One third (32%) think they will become “very conservative.”
Subsequently, two in five (41%) think the new court would vote to overturn Roe v Wade, the landmark ruling that legalized abortion across the country. This is despite a plurality of support for the ruling (45%).
