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AREAS in England that spent Christmas at Level 4 are at higher risk of experiencing even tighter restrictions in the new year, experts warned.
The government is reported to have considered a fifth level of rules amid fears that current measures are not enough to stop a steady rise in coronavirus cases.
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Lockdown measures throughout November reduced England’s daily cases to around 15,000, but the government was forced to cancel a planned relaxation of restrictions over Christmas amid a steady increase.
Level 4 measures were introduced in London and the South East just days before Christmas and expanded to Oxfordshire, Suffolk and Norfolk on December 26.
But Tuesday saw a record 53,135 people testing positive for coronavirus, and the continuing trend has raised concerns that more restrictions will soon be needed in the worst-hit areas.
Several London boroughs, including Barking and Dagenham, Enfield and Bexley, currently have seven-day infection rates of more than 1,000 cases per 100,000 population.
The equivalent figure in Essex is 857, while in Kent it is 665.
That compares with an average across the UK of 377 per 100,000 residents.
The government has ruled out a level 5 for now, but sources have said it might be necessary soon.
WHAT WERE THE FIRST AREAS TO GO TO LEVEL 4?
The areas that were first placed at Tier 4 are believed to be the most likely to enter Tier 5 in the new year. They were:
- Bedford
- Berkshire
- Buckinghamshire
- Central bedfordshire
- Essex (except Colchester, Uttlesford, Tendring)
- Go play sports
- Hastings
- Havant
- Hertfordshire
- Kent
- London (all 32 boroughs)
- Luton
- Milton keynes
- Peterborough
- Portsmouth
- Rother
- Surrey (excluding Waverley)
The new level could see schools and universities closed and British told to stay home, except when they need food and take other essential trips.
And experts have said that the areas likely to be hit first are those where Tier 4 measures were first introduced before Christmas.
Speaking to MailOnline, Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease specialist at the University of East Anglia, said: “Newham, Lewisham, Islington, Hillingdon, Havering, Haringey, Greenwich, Hackney, if anything (Level 5) will be in London or predominantly London.
“Whether it’s the capital as a whole or the local authorities in particular within that, I’m not sure how they will do it, but I suppose it will be difficult to put some authorities in and leave others out.”
Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor of cell microbiology at the University of Reading, added: “I really think it’s going to be London and parts of the South East.
“They have been at Level 4 the longest and it doesn’t seem to have any effect.”
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It comes after reports this week that the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, or SAGE, had warned Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the country’s R rate could continue to rise in the new year.
The warning followed the identification of a new strain of the coronavirus in the UK that is estimated to be up to 70 percent more infectious than the original.
Minutes from a SAGE meeting held on December 22 also revealed that panel members feared the R rate could remain above 1 even under a March-style full lockdown, the Independent reports.
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