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What happened yesterday in regards to the Brexit talks was reminiscent of the Battle of Waterloo, at least the version that was taught in my German school.
The French had Britain on the brink of defeat, when Prussian troops stormed and pardoned them.
Don’t forget, the chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister, and his French-speaking troops were ready to declare all subsequent negotiations futile and walk away when Germany’s ambassador to the EU relayed a message from Berlin.
Alexander Von Schoenburg (pictured), general editor of Germany’s best-selling newspaper, Bild
Our Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, insisted that it was time to put an end to the doctrinal approach and “start looking for a political solution.” If that meant that the talks had to continue beyond Sunday night, so be it. As we have seen, his intervention was decisive.
Around the same time, a press conference was taking place in Germany’s Bundeskanzleramt, the Chancellery.
It was designed to be solely dedicated to explaining Germany’s new Covid measures, but a journalist asked if Chancellor Angela Merkel was in favor of continuing Brexit negotiations.
She replied, “You have to try everything possible to reach an agreement.”
That word “all” highlights the difference between the German and French positions.
From the very beginning of the Brexit negotiations, two schools of thought have prevailed on the continent. In the picture: Prime Minister Boris Johnson with EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels.
From the very beginning of the Brexit negotiations, two schools of thought have prevailed on the continent.
The German approach has always been to offer Britain a tailor-made deal that is more favorable than that reached with Norway, or even Switzerland.
The argument is that the size of the British economy justifies a more delicate approach. Conflict areas could be circumvented through long transition periods.
The second school of thought, favored by those in the Francophone bloc, argued that the outcome had to be so detrimental to Britain that no other member state would dare to embark on the path of secession. In short, Britain needed to be punished.
The running joke in Brussels was that whenever French anti-secessionist general Michel Barnier was absent and non-French speaking officials ran the show, the negotiations were constructive. When he had to leave the negotiating table and isolate himself after a colleague hired Covid, for example, there were said to have been some minor advances.
But when he returned to the negotiating table, the tone of the talks turned distinctly hostile, thanks to Barnier’s insistence that the UK must abide by the EU regulatory changes made after it left the bloc.
Germany, of course, has a lot more to lose from a no-deal conclusion than France.
Last year we exported € 80bn (£ 73bn) of goods and services to the UK, which is the world’s largest buyer of German cars and accounts for nearly one in five of our car exports. Volkswagen alone sold 200,000 cars in Britain last year. They are also large buyers of German pharmaceuticals, chemicals and petroleum products.
Volkswagen alone (pictured) sold 200,000 cars in Britain last year. They are also big buyers of German pharmaceuticals, chemicals and petroleum products.
Since our ‘golden decade’ of growth came to a halt last year and the economy has been devastated by the pandemic, the last thing we need is a tariff barrier for one of our largest markets.
After all, Britain is not a former member of the EU. The UK economy is bigger than the 11 smallest EU member states combined. In effect, the EU is shrinking from 27 member states to 16.
We are now at a historical turning point. On Friday, German Foreign Minister Maas rightly said that future generations will judge us harshly if we abandon the talks now.
This amounted to a Berlin veto against the aggressive stance of the EU Commission towards Great Britain. Monsieur Barnier’s strategy of forcing Britain into such a desperate position that it would be forced to back down in the future has been effectively rejected by Berlin.
From what I heard from people close to Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, the EU had stopped negotiating in earnest long before Prime Minister Johnson’s unsuccessful trip to that dinner in Brussels last Wednesday.
Úrsula gave him orders in front of the cameras and served him fish and an Australian dessert, a not-so-subtle hint of where this whole thing is headed.
But as Johnson’s plane waited to take him back to London, reporters in Berlin were informed that Chancellor Merkel was in favor of a face-saving solution for Britain, one that would preserve her sovereignty to the extent that such a thing exists in a country. increasingly interdependent world.
Unfortunately, sources told us, Merkel’s former protégé Ursula had told her in no uncertain terms that it is the prerogative of Brussels and only Brussels to carry out all last minute negotiations and that any interference from single national governments was considered unwanted interference. This, Ms von der Leyen insisted, was the only way to safeguard the interests of all Member States collectively.
Sources told us that Ms. Merkel’s former protégé (pictured) Ursula had told her in no uncertain terms that it is the prerogative of Brussels and only Brussels.
Yesterday’s change of course is, of course, a sign of hope that Paris, and with it Brussels, is regaining reason.
It would be a serious misinterpretation of Britain’s determination to regain control of the EU, to punish it now on the grounds that a future government will knock on our door politely asking for re-entry.
It goes without saying that the negotiations could still fail, but if they do, it could be a blessing in disguise.
Once you are completely out, even if it is in WTO terms, you may well look back on 2020 as the year in which you managed to escape the dead hand of Brussels and regain your role as a global player with a clearly more liberal brand. , a more conducive place for entrepreneurs and, therefore, more attractive and innovative to do business.
Ursula von der Leyen (pictured) can be a bit bossy, but the good thing from her point of view is that she is not French but German
A kind of Singapore on the Thames is exactly what is feared the most in Berlin and that is why Germany will do everything possible to avoid a trade war and get Monsieur Barnier and France off their horse.
Ursula von der Leyen can be a bit bossy, but the good thing from your point of view is that she is not French but German.
In fact, she is from Lower Saxony, a place that not only has particularly close ties to Great Britain, but is the region where Volkswagen’s headquarters are located.
With the pleas of Ms. Merkel and German Foreign Minister Maas ringing in her ears, my prediction is that Ms. Von der Leyen will go the extra mile that the French seem incapable of doing.
