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Perhaps understandably, the Covid-19 pandemic has forced many other international stories off the news agenda.
It’s global, it’s deadly, and it’s multi-faceted, raising all sorts of questions, not just about how we respond to the initial crisis, but about the way we organize our societies and the way we manage our affairs.
Some major international problems have been neglected since the outbreak of the crisis and it may now be too late to face them. Others have become much more intractable. And some governments are trying to use the distraction of the Covid-19 pandemic to pursue long-standing ambitions.
Here are five issues that we should watch out for in the coming weeks and months.
A renewed nuclear arms race?
The new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New Beginning, which limits the far-reaching nuclear arsenals with which the United States and Russia threaten each other, expires in early February of next year. Time is shortening if it is to be renewed. This is the last of the great Cold War-inherited arms control deals that still survives.
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Without it, there are real fears that the absence of restrictions and the lack of transparency could lead to a new nuclear arms race. The fact that esoteric weapons like incredibly fast hypersonic missiles are developed gives this threat of a new arms race an additional danger.
Russia seems ready to renew the agreement, which would be simple in terms of procedure. However, the Trump administration seems determined to abandon the New Start treaty unless it can expand it to incorporate China. There is absolutely no interest in Beijing to join the regime. And now it is too late to write a whole new document anyway.
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So unless there is a late change of heart in Washington, or a new administration, the New Start treaty looks like it could be history.
Increased tensions with Iran?
The dispute over the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA agreement that seeks to limit Iran’s nuclear activities is about to get worse.
There is currently a broad United Nations embargo that prevents countries from selling various types of advanced weapons to Tehran. But according to the UN resolution that backed the nuclear deal, this arms embargo will expire on October 18 of this year. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has already warned that if the United States succeeds in its desire to renew the embargo, then there will be “serious consequences.”
However, there is little chance that Russia will accept an extended arms embargo. In which case, Trump wants Europeans to invoke a mechanism in the nuclear deal that restores much more widespread economic sanctions against Iran (the same sanctions that were largely lifted as a result of the deal).
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Trump’s gambit is, to say the least, extraordinary. The United States has withdrawn from the JCPOA and has since tried to increase pressure on Tehran. Iran has breached many of the terms of the agreement, but not necessarily irreversibly.
Now, though the administration appears to be saying that Iran should either stick to the deal that the United States has abandoned or face renewed sanctions. It is an effort by the Trump Administration, as one former senior Obama-era official noted, “to have your cake and eat it.”
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The relations between the EE. USA And Iran will worsen and the existing tensions between the EE. USA And its key European allies will flare up. And it’s not that the arms embargo has significantly changed Iran’s regional behavior or its ability to arm its powers.
Israel’s offer to annex the West Bank?
Israel’s long serial electoral campaign has come to an end with embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retaining his post, at least for a period, after a power-sharing deal with one of the main opposition parties.
Despite the legal cases pending against him, in fact, possibly in part due to them, Netanyahu proposes a controversial nationalist agenda that includes the desire to annex areas of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, making them a permanent part of Israel. .
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Arguably this would end once and for all the possibilities of a “two-state solution”, despite provisions for one in Donald Trump’s peace plan, which has been the dwindling hope of many who wish to see peace. lasting between Israel and the Palestinians. .
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Palestinians themselves are already crying and several governments in Europe and elsewhere are calling for caution, in some cases speaking of possible sanctions if this policy goes ahead. As always, the position of the Trump administration will be crucial. Will you give the green light to the move or advise restrictions?
It certainly appears that Netanyahu has been emboldened by President Trump’s decisions to support Israel’s annexation of the occupied Syrian Golan Heights and to relocate the US embassy. USA To Jerusalem. The United States’ current position is ambiguous, with suggestions that it will make its support for annexation in West Bank areas dependent on Israel agreeing to negotiate on a Palestinian state.
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The spread of the coronavirus has not stopped Palestinian protests against Israeli settlements.
Some analysts believe that having used the annexation issue to mobilize nationalist support during the election season, Netanyahu may find some way to back down. Perhaps the Americans will help, as there is no way hard-line Israeli nationalists want to see some kind of Palestinian state.
But it is going to be a bumpy period ahead.
Brexit: not gone
It is a term that many of us have almost forgotten.
But the clock is ticking: the transition period after Britain’s exit from the European Union ends on December 31. Talks about the terms of their future relationship have started tentatively, but there is no indication that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government is even contemplating a delay or extension to the transition phase.
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However, the pandemic has changed the entire context of Brexit, in particular by precipitating an economic depression from which it could take years to recover. There seems little appetite in Britain to revive the old debate. Time is anyway short.
While the EU’s initial response to the Covid-19 crisis did not present it in a particularly favorable light, it has to some extent recovered. It won’t go away. And Britain’s handling of the crisis has not been a great example, either.
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Britain’s exit from the EU will put pressure on both sides. Perhaps it will produce a more consensual approach to guide your future relationship. But hit by an economic downturn and breaking through into a much less hospitable world, key economic and diplomatic decisions: To what extent do you support Americans? To what extent do we face China? – they will play for the UK in a much harsher light.
Climate change: the really big one
The global response to the pandemic is, in a sense, a testing ground for the ability of the international community to meet the largest and most complex international challenge of all: climate change.
In terms of cooperation, the Covid-19 experience so far produces a very varied report. And the tensions that are likely to persist in the post-pandemic world will complicate matters greatly.
Bringing the climate change “process” back to normal is one thing: Crucial meetings, such as the UN’s Cop26 climate conference to be held in Glasgow in November, were postponed until next year.
But the question that remains is how will the international mindset have changed? Will there be a renewed sense of urgency and purpose? And to what extent will the new global order allow rapid progress on this enormously complex issue?
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