Italy to face second wave of even more deadly coronavirus as blockade eases, crash projection claims – the Sun

05/05/2020 World

[ad_1]

ITALY runs the risk of being hit with an even more devastating second wave of the coronavirus as it makes it easier to block, a new study warns.

Imperial College London (ICL) modeled how the virus would spread as Italy begins to reopen with academics warning of a “resurgence of the epidemic with more deaths than the current wave.”

⚠️ Read our coronavirus blog live for the latest news and updates

People in protective masks stand in line at the Porta Palazzo market in Turin on May 4Credit: Reuters

ICL presented three scenarios for what follows for Italy, including staying in the close, a slight easing of the measures and then a further easing of the measures.

The document states: “Returns to pre-closure mobility of 20% or 40% of current levels may lead to a resurgence of the epidemic with more deaths than the current wave in the absence of additional interventions.”

The study warned that social distancing measures should be kept in conjunction with testing, contact tracing, and isolation of people infected with Covid-19.

Italy finally began to break out of its national blockade yesterday after spending two months in strict quarantine.

It was the first nation in Europe to feel the impacts of the devastating virus, with terrible images that emerged to serve as a warning to the rest of the world.

The current official death toll in the country is 29,079.
And in the meantime, the UK has surpassed Italy’s official figures according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), with the death toll from the virus now standing at 32,313.

Dr. Samir Bhatt, lead author of the new study, said: “The impact of Covid-19 in Italy has been tragic, but the response taken to limit the impact of the disease has been successful and control of the disease has been achieved. substantially.

“Unfortunately, continued social distancing and other measures are required to prevent this success from reversing quickly, and our work offers a warning against underestimating the importance of such sacrifice.”

The researchers also warned that there is no “herd immunity” in Italy despite the serious number of viruses, with more than 200,000 people infected during the outbreak.

Dr Michaela Vollmer added: “Even small changes in mobility will likely lead to a resurgence of deaths and the appearance of a second wave that may be even greater than what Italy has already experienced.”

Imperial College London's forecast for deaths in the seven worst affected regions of Italy. The red line represents the expected number of deaths if the blocking measures are eased by 40% — Imperial College London’s forecast for deaths in the seven worst affected regions of Italy. The red line represents the expected number of deaths if the blocking measures are eased by 40%

Meanwhile, the current official death toll in Italy should be much higher according to the country’s National Statistics Institute (ISTAT).

ISTAT officials have released new data showing that during the period from February 20 to the end of March, excess deaths were 39% higher than the average for the past five years.

Instead of the 65,592 deaths you would expect, there were 90,946 deaths this time.

The figures suggest that the official death toll in Italy has lost thousands of victims as health authorities at the end of March had only counted just over 12,000 deaths from coronavirus.

With more than 25,000 additional deaths above the average, it suggests that the numbers are much higher.

Some areas were also particularly affected, and Bergamo reported that deaths increased by a staggering 568 percent.

Cremona also reported a 391 percent increase, with 371 percent in Lodi, 291 percent in Brescia, 264 percent in Piacenza, and 208 percent in Parma.

ISTAT said 91 percent of excess deaths were concentrated around areas of the country that were severely affected by the pandemic.

A woman participates in a flashmob protest of merchants calling for the reopening of stores in Venice on May 4.Credit: AFP or licensors

Britain reached a grim milestone today to overtake Italy for having the highest number of official deaths in Europe.

The ONS said 29,648 deaths had occurred through April 24 in England and Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on death certificates.

And including the deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland, the official number is now 32,313.

Ministers do not like comparisons of the total death toll, as they say excess mortality is a more significant measure.

Italy is Hoping that tourists will return before the end of the year as it looks for ways to boost its economy, with prior suggestions that they would be banned until 2021.

The government has also given the green light to factories to restart production lines, while construction workers were seen on construction sites today.

Health officials have also allowed the parks to reopen, while family members can be reunited with their families, but friends have been told to stay separate and most stores should remain closed until Dec. 18. may.

The time is coming when the UK government is trying to find the best way to get out of the blockade, with two of the five key tests needed to comply with the measures.