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The COP26 climate change summit may need to be postponed or radically changed due to the coronavirus pandemic, according to government sources.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is fighting to ensure that November’s flagship summit is held face-to-face by ensuring that participants are vaccinated and subjected to a robust testing regimen.
However, two government sources suggested that the Glasgow summit could still be delayed for a second time amid signs that the pandemic is worsening in some parts of the world.
It was postponed a year from last November due to COVID-19.
The summit will be held at the Scottish Event Campus in Glasgow this November
The decision on the future of the summit would be made in conjunction with the United Nations and the Scottish government, rather than being a decision for Downing Street alone.
A decision was made in May last year to delay the summit, which means that leaders will likely have to decide the shape and future of the summit in a few weeks.
A government source said: “There are too many uncertainties. It will depend on the public health rules that are introduced between now and then, and what happens with the delegates’ vaccines.”
Alok Sharma, the COP26 President, has told MPs that the summit should be a physical event in which participants sit around the table, although there will also be attendees online.
It is not yet clear who will be able to attend in person and who should attend virtually.
The government recently decided to abandon plans to hold the G7 finance ministers meeting in person in Cornwall in late spring.
The event, which will be hosted by Chancellor Rishi Sunak, will now take place virtually.
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This has set off alarms in Whitehall because the finance ministers meeting involved a fraction of the number of people involved in COP26, but has still been deemed unfeasible.
The main G7 meeting of world leaders in June, hosted by Johnson and involving US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is still taking place in Cornwall.
The last two COP summits have had more than 20,000 attendees, with heads of state, ministers, Sherpas and officials, as well as security figures, all flying.
The ministers do not yet know what social distancing or travel rules will be in effect, and whether it would be feasible to vaccinate key attendees.
The Scottish government, likely led by SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon after the May elections, will determine the public health rules in force in Glasgow.
Plans to drastically reduce the number of attendees by forcing many civil society groups to participate online are likely to generate controversy.
There is concern that this means that the key voices of small states vulnerable to climate change are marginalized.
However, a source in the climate change movement said the event could benefit if it moved into next spring rather than being held almost entirely online.
This would mean that more people will be vaccinated and there will be no winter pressures present in November.
There are also concerns that preparatory work for COP26 is delayed and the additional months could guarantee a more successful outcome.
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The MP who chairs the House of Commons business selection committee warned that cutting back on the conference could marginalize voices that need to be heard louder.
Labor’s Darren Jones told Sky News that the government needs to explain how the negotiations will take place in person.
“An important aspect of all COPs is that all countries have the same level of access around the table, be it the president of the United States or the president of Madagascar, to clarify the global agreement,” he said.
“Some of the smallest countries, some of the most vulnerable countries, depend on NGOs (non-governmental organizations) to amplify their voice.
“So if we end up with only national delegations and no other stakeholders, there is a risk of securing the right kind of deal.”
Jones warned the prime minister not to prioritize presenting a picture of the UK’s world leadership post-Brexit over the priority of striking a deal on climate change.
“The main and to be honest the sole objective of COP26 is to agree on a national and international approach to decarbonization,” he added.
“I can understand and empathize with why the prime minister would want to have a detailed British leadership conference, but that is a secondary priority for the COP process.
“Climate change is not about the ego of our country, it is about saving the planet.”
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A diplomat revealed his concern that Johnson’s goals for the summit, putting post-Brexit Britain on the diplomatic map, suggested that the prime minister’s approach and goals for the summit were not solely focused on promoting a deal on the climate change.
They made it clear that a delayed COP summit was preferable to a bad one.
“There are dangers in trying to lose too much weight,” they said.
“Even government delegations need a lot of people. It’s not clear how it will work with a lot less people.”
Green Party co-leader Jonathan Bartley said the summit cannot be delayed a second time.
He told Sky News: “The COP is absolutely vital: it is about people’s safety, people’s well-being, this is a climate emergency. It must be treated as such.
“The COP meeting is an emergency situation. It is about how we look not to exceed that 1.5 degree increase that it seems we are in danger of doing. That is potentially disastrous for the entire planet.
“If there is any way to move the COP forward, we should be looking at it. It has already been postponed once. We cannot afford to hesitate and delay any further.”
Downing Street said Johnson was determined to hold the summit in person.
A source said there were always uncertainties, but they hadn’t seen anything to suggest that he couldn’t move on.
