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Exit polls from Israel’s fourth election in two years suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party was ahead, but did not yet have the clear parliamentary majority needed to form a government and end the political deadlock.
Unofficial figures from three major television channels released late Tuesday night showed the Likud party with around 31 to 33 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. That was much more than the head of the opposition, Yair Lapid, predicted would occupy between 16 and 18 seats.
However, post-vote polls have proven unreliable in the past. Crucially, to form a 61-seat majority coalition, Netanyahu will have to convince other parties to join him. Political negotiations could fail, possibly resulting in an unwanted fifth election this summer.
In reaction to the exit poll results, Netanyahu fell short of declaring victory, but said voters had expressed a notable ideological preference. “It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are on the right,” he said. said on Twitter.
In an election night speech at a Likud rally, he said the party’s projected number of seats in parliament was “a great achievement” and that he hoped to form a “stable right-wing government.”
“I will communicate with all elected officials who share our principles. I will not exclude anyone, “he told his followers.
The prime minister has hoped that voters will take credit for a vaccination campaign against the global coronavirus that has prompted Israel to reopen shops, bars and restaurants at the same time. pushing down infection rates.
“We are the world champions in handling the coronavirus,” Netanyahu told the crowd in the lead-up to the vote.
At a polling station in Jerusalem, when asked who wanted to win, voter Sima Levy said, using her nickname: “Always by Bibi Netanyahu”. The 58-year-old real estate broker added: “What he has done for us and continues to do, is delivered for the country … I believe it is protected by God.”
The politicians The preferred path to victory would be what is called a “full-right government,” made up of extremist nationalist, hard-line religious and far-right parties.
Allies of ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions would be relied upon for support, such as Aryeh Deri, who said Sunday that it was not the “natural place” for a woman to run for the party, Shas, which he leads.
The prime minister may also need the backing of a group seen as even more extreme: an alliance called Religious Zionism, which includes politicians who have expressed anti-gay views and want to expel “disloyal” Arabs from the state.
Israel’s most prominent left-leaning newspaper, Haaretz, has called this potential outcome a “nightmare” for “anyone but a nationalist extremist who believes in Jewish supremacy.”
While most Israelis say they want Netanyahu out, he remains extremely popular compared to other candidates, despite facing multiple corruption charges, including bribery and fraud. Denies the charges.
Perhaps fatigued after repeated rounds of voting during a protracted crisis, or possibly due to unusually dusty hot weather, this year’s turnout appeared to have fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Shortly after his vote, Robert Rosenschein, 67, who lives in Jerusalem, said the political stalemate had created apathy with the political process. “There is more exhaustion than usual because you also have Covid fatigue,” he added.
In opposition, Lapid, a former television host and finance minister, hoped that his Yesh Atid party could become a significant force. However, to do that, the self-proclaimed “centrist” will likely have to forge alliances with parties across the political spectrum, from Arab MPs to far-right nationalists such as former Netanyahu ally Avigdor Lieberman.
Lapid has taken on the role of opposition chief from Benny Gantz, a former army chief who fought Netanyahu during the last three elections but lost support after he made a power-sharing deal that ultimately collapsed. Exit polls showed Gantz was forecast to hold only about 7-8 seats, up from 33 in the last election last year.
More than 6.3 million people were eligible to vote. By Election Day, the army closed the crossings with the occupied West Bank, where more than 2.5 million Palestinians live under Israeli rule but cannot vote.
Full results could take days to arrive.
Matti Tuchfeld, a commentator for the Israel Hayom newspaper, said there were great uncertainties surrounding this election.
Israeli law dictates that parties need a minimum of 3.25% of all votes to even enter the Knesset, meaning that fractional changes to the ballot could significantly influence the results.
“Nobody knows what will happen this time,” he wrote. “The election results are definitely unpredictable. Only one thing is clear: it shouldn’t surprise us if it surprises us a lot in the end ”.
Questions and answers
What’s happening?
Israelis voted Tuesday in the country’s fourth national election in less than two years.
Why would they do that?
Under the country’s political system, it is extremely difficult for a party to obtain an absolute majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. In the past, governments have been made up of parties that come together to form a coalition. However, recent attempts continue to fail.
How?
It depends on who you ask, and there is certainly an element of bad luck about it. Still, the fissures that have kept Israel in limbo relate to just one man: Benjamin Netanyahu. The country’s longest-serving leader has become a sticking point due to his domestic division, being adored and detested.
How were the three previous votes?
“King Bibi,” as he is known, appeared to defeat former army chief and opposition leader Benny Gantz in the first elections in April 2019, but a disgruntled ex-ally, far-right nationalist Avigdor Lieberman, prevented him from forming a government. . The next election saw Netanyahu and Gantz in a virtual tie and the two torpedoed each other’s race for power. A third vote ended in a government, a compromise in which Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to rotate the post of prime minister. But that deal collapsed in December.
What about the Netanyahu corruption case?
The 71-year-old leader has been formally charged with corruption, allegations he denies, and will continue with hearings next month. Political analysts in Israel have speculated that Netanyahu broke the last government because he had to hand over power to Gantz. They say he would rather risk another election in the hope that he can fight the charges from the powerful position of prime minister.
Has anything changed this time?
Many of the key players remain the same, although some have changed. Gantz, who had campaigned on the promise to oust Netanyahu but later reneged and joined him, lost a lot of support. Yair Lapid, Gantz’s former running mate who appeals to secular middle-class Israelis, is now the head of the opposition.
Is occupation a problem in this election?
Internal politics in Israel have leaned to the right, and the fate of millions of Palestinians under Israeli military control has all but disappeared from election campaigns.
When will we know the results?
Voting figures will come in early Wednesday morning, but it could take days to count the ballots. If the outcome becomes confusing, the real battle for power could take weeks. Current polls show a stalemate, so there is a possibility that the country faces a dreaded fifth election.
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