[ad_1]
Vaccines alone are unlikely to contain coronavirus infections in the UK, a new study suggests.
However, the research concluded that gradually easing blocking restrictions and achieving high acceptance of COVID-19 shocks can minimize future waves.
The University of Warwick model was made before the first real-world data emerged from studies examining the impact of the vaccine launch.
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘I’ll get my jab tomorrow,’ says PM
Professor Matt Keeling said: ‘Our model suggests that launching the adult-only vaccination is unlikely to completely halt the spread of COVID-19 cases in the UK.
“We also found that the sudden early release of restrictions is likely to lead to a large wave of infection, while gradual easing of measures over a period of many months could reduce the peak of future waves.”
He added that the highly successful launch of the vaccine in the UK so far, coupled with the government’s gradual roadmap to ease restrictions, are cause for optimism.
“However, some measures, such as testing, tracking and isolating, good hand hygiene, the use of masks in high-risk environments and the tracking of super-spreader events, may also be necessary for some time,” explained the Professor Keeling.
The study was published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases and modeled the launch of the combination vaccine in the UK with different scenarios of relaxing blocking measures. The goal was to predict the R number, as well as COVID-related deaths and hospital admissions, between January 2021 and January 2024.
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
‘AstraZeneca vaccine is safe,’ says EU regulator
In the model, the absorption of the vaccine was assumed to be 95% in people aged 80 years and over, 85% in those aged 50 to 79 years, and 75% in those aged 18 to 49 years.
The vaccine protection against symptomatic disease was assumed to be 88% based on data from the phase three trial of the Pfizer / BioNTech and Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccines administered in the UK.
The findings suggest that although vaccination can substantially reduce the rate of R, it may not be sufficient to bring R below one without other control measures.
According to the researchers, the scale of future waves, and the number of deaths they cause, will be influenced by the way in which early measures are relaxed, the time scale with which they are alleviated, the level of protection of the vaccine against infection and uptake of injections.
The model estimated that partially easing lockdown restrictions in February 2021 would lead to 131,100 coronavirus deaths in the UK by January 2024.
Partial easing of the measures in April 2021 was also predicted to lead to 61,400 deaths by 2024, while starting to remove restrictions in June 2021 would result in 53,900 deaths.
If all lockdown measures are removed in January 2022, after the vaccine launch is complete, estimates suggest there will be 21,400 deaths from COVID-19 over the next two years.
Dr Sam Moore, also from the University of Warwick, added: “Since we conducted this study, new evidence suggests that there may be a higher level of protection against serious disease offered by the Pfizer / BioNTech and Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccines than level than fictitious.
“This can reduce the size of future hospital admissions and deaths that we estimate, making future waves more manageable for the health service.”
Use the Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Jab’s release is ready to be ‘victim of its own success’
The model did not take into account the emergence of new variants that can make the bumps offer less protection, or the effects of waning immunity, which may mean that additional vaccines are needed.
The researchers were also unable to determine the impact that relaxation of specific blocking measures would have on future cases and deaths.
