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The COVID-19 vaccination program has exceeded expectations by delivering more than 25 million first doses in just 100 days, but it is about to become a victim of its own success.
The reason is what we might call “second dose debt” – the requirement that everyone who receives a first dose must receive a second within 12 weeks.
In its simplest form, it means that if 400,000 first doses are given on a given day, the program should deliver 400,000 seconds COVID-19 hits those people in about 12 weeks just to sit still.
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No jab appointments ‘canceled’ in April
The guidelines, established by the Joint Committee on Vaccines and Immunization (JCVI), effectively turned the first three months of 2021 into a race to administer as many first doses as possible to the 32 million people in the most vulnerable cohorts – the elderly. 50 years. , NHS staff and caregivers, and those with underlying health problems.
The launch began in earnest when the first Oxford-AstraZeneca The doses went into circulation on January 4 (the Pfizer-BioNTech was available from December 8), giving the vaccination program until March 29 before the debt of the second dose had to be paid.
That moment explains why the supply slowdown couldn’t be a worse time, and why the NHS has pause pressed reserving first doses for those under 50 starting March 29 to focus on delivering 12 million second doses in April.
Of course, the program has already been administering second doses, but so far not on the scale that will be required now.
As of the end of January, 494,209 had received two doses, increasing to 815,816 at the end of February and then to 1,879,054 as of March 17.
Between December 28 and January 31 (precise data are not available only for January), 8,443,877 first doses were administered. The April break in the first doses to administer 12 million second injections will allow the program to get a little ahead of the curve at the expense of the first doses for those under 50 years of age.
In February, 10,979,084 first doses were delivered, a figure that should be equalized at least in May, when the first doses are resumed for new cohorts. Good news for them, but setting the clock ticking again on administering the second dose.
In March, another 5,460,021 people were injected for the first time at the time of writing (March 18), setting the second dose rate for June.
This graph is a projection of how the pause in the first few doses in April will affect the launch. It will make it possible to prioritize 12 million second doses, and based on the last seven-day average, even after the first doses are resumed, the second doses will be completed in the first week of June.
Maintaining the current first dose rate for the younger cohorts would only be possible by dramatically increasing supplies, but, even with the current supply tightness, it appears that the government’s goals remain achievable.
The program has committed to offering a first dose to 52 million UK adults by the end of July.
Assuming that the April 15 goal of vaccinating the 32 million most vulnerable people is met and that the pause in the first doses for those under 50 years of age continues throughout the month of April, the program will have 13 weeks to administer 20 millions of new first doses, in addition to maintaining even second doses.
If the current seven-day average of 458,471 daily doses were maintained, even allowing a pause of the first dose in April, 52.8 million people would have received a first dose by July 18. By then, 31 million people, almost all of the nine most vulnerable cohorts, will also have had a second chance.
Based on the current seven-day average of 458,000 doses, 52.8 million people will have received a first dose by July 18, even allowing a pause of the first dose in April. By then, 31 million people, almost all of the nine most vulnerable cohorts, will also have had a second chance.
It would be a remarkable achievement.
But a lot can still change for better and for worse, and supply will be the defining variable until the last chance.
