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A poll has suggested that a majority of Scots would now vote to remain in the UK in the event of a second independence referendum tomorrow.
The poll is the first to be conducted after both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond gave testimony to Holyrood’s investigation into the failed handling of harassment complaints against the former prime minister.
The survey conducted by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman interviewed 1,015 Scots between March 4-5, the two days immediately following the Prime Minister’s appearance prior to the Salmond investigation.
The poll shows a general preference for a No vote in any second referendum, with a total of 46% support for No, 43% support for Yes and 10% for I don’t know.
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If he is not known to be excluded, he suggests an advantage of 52% for No, with 48% for Yes.
However, these figures are not weighted by voter turnout, and more polls are expected this week to show a clearer impact of the research on Scottish independence voting intention.
These figures on Scottish independence are not directly comparable to previous surveys on the subject, due to this and the nature of the survey.
The poll also shows that the scandal is affecting voters and is generating distrust in the SNP and Ms Sturgeon, with almost half saying they trust the Prime Minister less due to the investigation.
Respondents were asked to say whether certain issues made them more or less likely to vote for Scottish independence, with options including Salmond’s investigation, the ongoing Covid-19 vaccine launch, the Scottish government’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, gender recognition. Act (GRA) debate within the SNP, Brexit and the performance of other political parties.
Of all of them, the issue that voters said kept them farthest from supporting Scottish independence was Salmond’s research, with 35 percent saying it made them “less likely” to vote Yes.
However, 16 percent said the research made them more likely to vote Yes, 41 percent said it had made no difference in their likelihood of supporting Scottish independence, and 8 percent said they didn’t know.
The next issue most likely to drive voters to support the union was Brexit, with 26 percent saying they were least likely to support Scottish independence.
The GRA debate within the SNP was third, with 24 percent saying they were less likely to vote Yes.
The Scottish government’s handling of Covid-19 and the ongoing vaccine launch are the two issues most likely to drive Scots to Yes, with 42 percent of voters saying they made it more likely they would vote for Scottish independence.
Brexit (35 percent) and the performance of other political parties (30 percent) were the next most likely problems to get people to vote Yes.
However, the Salmond investigation has also seen confidence in the Prime Minister drop compared to December.
A total of 43 percent now trust Ms Sturgeon less due to the research, a seven-point increase from December, and 26 percent trust her more, also 7 percent more, and those who say they trust in it the same in 25 percent, less. 12 percent.
Confidence in the SNP is also falling, with 45 percent saying they trust the party less than before the Salmond investigation, 8 percent more than the last time this question was asked.
Almost half of Scots (46 percent, an increase of 5 percent) say they trust the Scottish government less because of the scandal.
However, the former prime minister fares worse in terms of loss of confidence, with nearly two-thirds (57 percent, 3 percent more than in December) stating that they trust Salmond less than before the investigation began.
The numbers also show that more Scots are aware of the Salmond investigation than in December, following the appearance of Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond in front of the investigation in the last ten days.
Polls show that around a third of Scots (34 per cent) would now say they are “well aware” of the research, 16 per cent more than in December, when the question was last asked.
Another 41 percent say they are “fairly conscious”, 7 percent less, 16 percent (6 percent less) say they are not as conscious and 5 percent (3 percent less) say they are not. is aware of all.
Savanta ComRes associate director Chris Hopkins said the impact of the investigation on the Prime Minister was not yet “catastrophic.”
He said: “Although, unsurprisingly, awareness of Salmond’s investigation has increased since December, it is not to say that the story has had a huge impact on its protagonists, as those who say they trust both Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond now increase less and less. practically in the same proportions.
“With only a fifth of 2014 there are no voters less likely to support independence because of the saga, its impact on the Prime Minister does not appear to be catastrophic, for now.”
The Salmond investigation is examining the Scottish government’s failed handling of harassment allegations against Mr Salmond, which resulted in a £ 500,000 statutory bill after the government admitted a judicial review challenge alleging that the process was “tainted by obvious bias.”
Salmond was also acquitted of sex crime charges in a trial last year.
