[ad_1]
Of the many coronavirus variants identified so far, there is particular concern about P1, first identified in Brazil, with fears about the extent to which it can evade the immune system and possibly vaccines. The UK has registered six cases so far, and the only positive result is now being sought that did not leave its contact details.
How worried should we be?
From the intensity of the search for the unidentified person with P1, it would appear that the government is very concerned. A public appeal is followed by knocking on the doors of 379 homes in south-east England where the individual is believed to be able to live.
On the other hand, experts say that the fact that we know there are six cases and that we are taking strong steps to ensure there is no spread is a very good sign that the UK can control new variants. We are not in the situation now that we were with the B117 “Kent” variant, which took off under the radar in late fall. No one knew we had it until it became widespread and is now the dominant form of infection in the UK.
How did P1 manage to enter the UK?
Realistically, there is no network that can keep variants out. P1 is already in 25 countries. The key is knowing that the variants have arrived and then preventing their spread. The three Scottish cases, we are told, came from people who had been to Brazil and flew back to Aberdeen via Paris and London. They followed the rules and quarantined themselves upon arrival. Subsequent tests showed they had P1. The two cases in South Gloucestershire flew from São Paulo to London via Zurich.
Unless international flights are completely stopped, Covid cases and variants will arrive from abroad. Testing people before flying and after arrival, along with self-isolation or hotel quarantine and contact tracing, are key. “Test, trace and isolate” has always been the mantra for containing infectious diseases, but it is very difficult unless the number of infections is at least as low as now.
Are there other variants we need to worry about?
B1351, which was first detected in South Africa, is as concerning as P1. The variants have similar mutations to the spike protein, which is the target of vaccines. The biggest concern is a mutation called E484K, which appears to eliminate virus-fighting antibodies produced by the immune system after vaccination. Scientists believe that the effectiveness of the vaccine will be reduced, but protection against serious illness, hospital admission and death may not be affected. E484K has also appeared in some cases of the Kent variant.
But these won’t be the last variants we see. Others will occur, and there are probably already some that have yet to be identified in the many countries that do not have the extensive, high-quality genetic sequencing seen in the UK.
Is this the death sentence for travel abroad?
They certainly make it difficult. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has been careful not to promote the idea of a vacation abroad this summer. Tracking, tracing and isolating variant cases is not that difficult in a confinement, when few people move and socialize and we are not allowed to go abroad. But if planes full of tourists started landing in the kind of numbers we used to know about, it would be a lot more difficult.
Won’t vaccines protect us?
That is still the hope. We are probably looking for booster shots or shots with newly modified vaccines to combat the variants we now know of in the fall. But we could be racing to keep up with a mutant virus for some time to come, and it will take years to get even basic vaccines in many parts of the world, let alone new ones to keep variants at bay. Much more genetic sequencing around the world will also be vital.
