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Everything felt terribly predetermined.
A near-safe Senate trial, aside from a sudden jolt on the final day, when Democrats toyed with calling witnesses and the entire process looked like it could take weeks to wrap up.
In the end, it ended as we knew it would happen: with Trump acquitted of inciting an insurrection.
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The moment Trump was acquitted
The Democrats had more on their side this time: an event that the world saw on television screens, rather than a confused call to Ukraine. It was visceral, not abstract.
They had a team of managers with a lot of powerful material, who were much more compelling and less bombastic than at the first impeachment.
And they had the benefit of Republicans who had already publicly expressed their outrage at Donald Trump’s behavior and language on January 6.
Also, they had a defense team that seemed to have a hard time coming up with a clear argument.
But ultimately, and critically, many felt that the Democrats did not have the support of the Constitution.
The early voting on whether it was constitutional to go ahead with the trial gave us a very good idea of where the final vote would land. Only a small handful of Republicans supported the Democrats who carried out the trial in the first place.
Of course, there were some nuances. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader who voted in favor of the president’s acquittal, delivered a nasty post-trial speech, claiming that Donald Trump was “practically and morally responsible” for sparking the Capitol unrest.
So what stopped you from voting to convict? The Constitution said. His belief is that a former president cannot be convicted.
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January: Trump ‘provoked’ the mob, says McConnell
Democrats and critics saw that rather vaguely. It’s the same Mitch McConnell who could have decided to allow a trial while Trump was still in office and chose not to.
So what is at stake? Some say it is pure political survival. There are those who have their eyes set on the midterm elections, others with their eyes on running in 2024. And there are those who do not believe that Trump’s words directly incited a crowd.
Democrats tried to frame it as a watershed moment – an opportunity for people to shape their political legacy and be remembered forever for criticizing Donald Trump.
But the point is, not enough people feel compelled or able to do so. It means that the path is now clear for Trump to execute him in 2024. A close friend tells me that he is convinced that in the end he won’t, but he will probably pester us with headlines about it for a couple of years.
The way is now clear for Trump to run again, but will he?
The former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, claims that the Republican Party is Trump’s party. That’s more than boastful rhetoric. His father seems to have the party in a bind.
Yes, there are those, like Nikki Haley, who have come out with long criticisms of Trump. There will be many more to come. But when it mattered most, the party backed him.
Now, they will not be able to escape from it. You don’t have Twitter, but you will find a way to make sure you are heard. On those occasions, when it is in their interest to be quiet rather than amplify their voice, they will have a hard time finding the mute button.
Meanwhile, Democrats will have to be very selective about how much more they say. Joe Biden has made it clear that he doesn’t want to be dragged into impeachment comments, with the American public still in the midst of a pandemic.
