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There was confusion tonight about just how deadly the Kent coronavirus variant really is after 10 SAGE studies came to wildly different conclusions about its lethality and the World Health Organization said it hadn’t seen any convincing data yet.
Boris Johnson and his chief scientists tonight made the shocking claim that the strain, called B.1.1.7, could be 30 percent more deadly than previous versions of the virus without presenting any evidence to support the terrifying development.
The announcement came after 10 studies submitted to SAGE overwhelmingly suggested that the strain was more lethal than previous variants. But there are question marks about the findings because estimates varied wildly, and one study even found the strain to be less deadly than the previous version.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated that the risk of death from the new variant could be 1.35 times higher, Imperial College London said it was between 1.29 and 1.36 times, the University of Exeter found it could be 1.91 and Public Health England said it could be as high as 1.6. But there are more questions about the reliability of the data because the investigation was only based on a few hundred deaths.
England’s Director of Public Health Dr Susan Hopkins warned people not to read too much into the findings and suggested that the evidence was still unclear. She added: ‘There is evidence from some, but not all, data sources suggesting that the variant of concern first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variant. The evidence on this variant is still emerging and more work is being done to fully understand how it behaves. ‘
Sir Patrick Vallance said in tonight’s briefing that hospital data had suggested that the variant might increase the risk of death for a 60-year-old man from 1% to 1.3%, but admitted that “the evidence has not yet it’s solid. ” Adding to the confusion, Professor Chris Whitty said he wasn’t entirely convinced the strain was more lethal in the first place.
And the variant has already been detected in 60 countries, including most of continental Europe, the US, Australia, India, China and Saudi Arabia; however, none of those countries have reported a higher mortality rate from the new variant.
Kit Yates, a mathematical biologist at the University of Bath, criticized the government for causing confusion and panic over the variant. He tweeted: ‘I really don’t like the way the news about the increased lethality of B1.1.7 was leaked and then discussed at a press conference. Where is the data? We want to be able to analyze it and understand the details, not just the summary. ‘
The WHO also undermined No. 10, saying it hadn’t seen any evidence yet to convince it that the Kent strain was actually more deadly than other strains. In a lightly veiled blow to the UK government, the body said the increased death rate was more likely the result of ministers losing control over infections.
Dr Mike Ryan, head of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, said today at a separate press conference: “There is a big difference between the lethality of a virus, how many people on average a virus kills and mortality. If I have a million people infected and my fatality is 1%, or two million infected people with a fatality of 1%, twice as many people will die. [in the second case].
The Kent strain first emerged in south-east England in October and quickly became the dominant strain in Britain, causing a devastating winter wave of infections and hospital admissions that plunged the country into a third lockdown.
Studies have shown that the Kent strain is 50 to 70 percent more infectious than the original version thanks to key mutations in its spike protein that make it easier to block in human cells. This gives it an evolutionary advantage over other strains.
It was also feared that these same mutations could make the variant resistant to vaccines or natural immunity from a previous infection. But data from UK studies suggest that this will not be the case.
Speaking at the Downing Street press conference tonight, Boris Johnson said: “ We have been informed today that in addition to spreading more rapidly, there now appears to be some evidence that the new variant, the variant that was first identified Once in London and the South East, it may be associated with a higher degree of mortality. ‘
And the prime minister turned himself in to his chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, who explained: ‘If you take a 60-year-old man, the average risk is that for a thousand people who got infected, you would expect about 10, unfortunately, die … with the new variant, for a thousand infected people, approximately 13 or 14 people can be expected to die. That’s the exchange rate for that type of age group.
He added: ‘I want to emphasize that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding these numbers and we need more work to handle it accurately, but it is obviously concerning that this has an increase in mortality and an increase in transmissibility.’ , as it appears today.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who is part of SAGE’s NERVTAG subgroup and whose grim model that hundreds of thousands of Britons could die without action scared ministers at the first shutdown last March, said today: “ It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but considerable uncertainty remains.
“Four groups (Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter) have looked at the relationship between people who test positive for the variant against the old strains and the risk of death. That suggests a 1.3 times higher risk of death. So for 60-year-olds, 13 out of 1,000 could die compared to 10 out of 1,000 for old strains. ‘
Public Health England refused to commit to a fatality figure. Dr Susan Hopkins, Director of Strategic Response at PHE, said: ‘There is evidence from some, but not all, data sources to suggest that the variant of concern first detected in the UK may lead to a higher risk of death than the non-variant. Evidence on this variant is still emerging and more work is being done to fully understand how it behaves. ‘
The devastating No10 press conference came despite a series of statistics showing that the second wave has already peaked and may finally be under control. SAGE said today that Britain’s R rate has fallen below the crucial level of one and separate surveillance studies estimate that daily cases have been cut in half in fifteen days.
Figures from the Health Department mirrored the trend, with infections falling by 30 percent week-over-week as health chiefs announced another 40,261 cases. Authorities also published 1,401 deaths, just 9.5 percent more than last Friday. But experts warned that the death toll will continue to rise for at least another week due to the time it takes for infected patients to become seriously ill.
Defying mounting pressure to commit to loosening current measures, Johnson warned today that the NHS is still under enormous pressure and restrictions will only be lifted when it is “safe.” Downing Street was warned that it will face the ‘mother of all battles’ next month when it has to discuss easing restrictions.
The Covid Recovery Group of 70 conservative MPs is urging the government to begin lifting the lockdown no later than March 8, when vaccines administered to the most vulnerable groups should have gone into effect.
But No10’s refusal to give an exact day of when the lockdown will end may have been prompted by troubling findings from scientists feeding on SAGE, who raised the alarm about the variant’s possible increased risk of death.
