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For a few hours this week, we were given a glimpse of the closely guarded secret at the center of the UK vaccination program.
It was courtesy of Scottish government, which published its vaccination plan on Wednesday.
The plan included detailed figures for the number of vaccines which would be supplied to Scotland by the UK every week until the end of May.
The UK government objected, saying that publishing the figures would create difficulties for pharmaceutical companies, and the offending page was quickly removed, but not before some savvy internet users could save a copy.
Here’s what those numbers showed:
The reason this information is so valuable is because it gives us an idea of what is perhaps the most important piece of information in the entire vaccination program: the number of vaccines available to UK governments.
The UK government has promised to offer COVID-19 vaccinated 15 million vulnerable people in mid-February.
More than a month in the program, it is managed to hit 3.2 million people. By international standards, this is impressive. What’s more, according to today’s figures, the daily rate is now close to what is needed for the government to achieve its goal.
Ministers have said the limiting factor is the supply of the vaccine, but the government has not released figures on exactly how many vaccines the UK expects.
Without these numbers, it is very difficult to judge the UK’s progress. We only have the assurances of ministers, which, for understandable reasons, many people are reluctant to trust.
Figures from the Scottish government give us a real idea of what is possible. As the table below shows, with this supply of vaccines, Scotland could give each person in the priority groups a first dose in mid-March.
That includes everyone over the age of 50 and everyone over the age of 16 with serious underlying health problems.
Assuming there are no problems with supply or delivery, Scotland will have enough vaccine to offer two doses to every adult in the country by mid-July.
In practice, not everyone will accept the offer of a vaccine, so these goals could be achieved even faster. The Scottish government itself expects an 80% absorption; Our figures are based on 100% utilization.
We can also use these numbers to estimate when the UK as a whole will receive its vaccines. This involves making some assumptions, so any figure should be taken with a pinch of salt.
But the results these numbers produce explain why, behind the scenes, ministers are so confident in the launch of the vaccine.
If Scotland received a vaccine supply commensurate with its per capita share of the UK population, as sources with experience in immunization programs across the UK say, then the UK will easily have enough vaccine to meet its February target. .
It will also be able to offer one dose to all UK adults in mid-July.
Of course there are many things that could go wrong from here. Raw materials may be in short supply. Vaccines can be lost or wasted.
But there are reasons to be optimistic.
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The Scottish government says its figures are based on the worst-case scenario provided by the Westminster government.
The Scottish government has also allowed 5% waste, although it actually says that the actual amount of waste is 1%.
It might sound hard to believe, but based on these numbers and the increasingly positive noises coming out of Westminster, the UK government’s vaccination program is on track to deliver fewer promises and deliver too much.
