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The public is deeply unhappy with the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and Brexit negotiations, a new damning poll suggests.
The poll predicts that if a general election were held tomorrow, neither the Conservatives nor Labor would win an absolute majority. Worryingly for Boris Johnson, the poll says the Conservatives would lose 81 seats, eliminating the majority of the 80 seats they won in December 2019.
It offers the first detailed information on public perception of Johnson’s handling of the Brexit and pandemic talks, amid fears Britain is heading for a third national lockdown.
The prime minister is on track to lose his own Uxbridge and Ruislip South headquarters, if the information is accurate.
According to the survey of more than 22,000 people, conducted by the research data company Focaldata, using the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) method that is said to be more than accurate than conventional surveys, the results would leave conservatives with 284 seats and Labor with 282 – an increase of 82.
The results in Scotland would see the Scottish National Party achieve a near complete sweep, winning 57 of the 59 Scottish seats. The poll also predicts that the Liberal Democrats would drop to just two seats, in Bath and in Kingston and Surbiton, down from 11 today. One in four voters who supported the Liberal Democrats in 2019 said they will switch their allegiance to Labor.
Many of the seats Labor would win are in the North of England, the Midlands and Wales, part of the collapse of the “red wall” that brought the Conservatives to power in the last election, the Sunday Times reported.
The poll predicts that the Conservatives would hold on to just eight of the 43 red wall seats they won in the last election: Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe and Sedgefield.
Labor is slightly ahead of the Conservatives with 37.7% of the vote, the Conservatives with 35.6%, the Liberal Democrats with 8.7% and the Green Party with 6.9%.
The findings clearly suggest that new Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer is making progress in rebuilding support for his party. In the past six months, Labor has managed to maintain the 26-point lead held by the Conservatives.
The poll results are likely to fuel further unease among Conservative MPs about the performance of the prime minister and his cabinet.
Focaldata founder Justin Ibbett, who conducted a similar poll for Conservatives ahead of the 2019 elections, told the Sunday Times: “One year after their impressive general election win, it is clear that Conservatives already have a lot of work to do. What to do if they want to replicate their 2019 success in future elections.
“The SNP appears to be the real winner. Not only do all but two Scottish constituencies win, but the most likely outcome is a Labor-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats. “
Conservative supporters were quick to point out on social media that the survey period ended before news of the Brexit deal was announced and claim there is evidence of a shift toward the Conservatives in the few days after.
