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A highly infectious variant of the Covid-19 virus continued to spread rapidly even through the end of November in England, according to investigations, putting pressure on ministers to return to stricter national restrictions.
Research from Imperial College London, which found that the new variant was more prevalent among those under 20 years of age and was spreading rapidly to older age groups, indicated that the breeding number, or R, was unlikely to fall by below 1 unless the government closed all schools.
In the government’s latest coronavirus U-turn, Gavin Williamson decided on New Year’s Day that all London elementary schools would remain closed next week, just days after he ordered schools in 10 of the city’s 32 districts to be closed. capital remain open. The education secretary was forced to listen to the London boroughs after they argued that pupils and teachers crossed the borders of local authorities every day.
Imperial’s findings come as the NHS prepares for a possible spike in cases after families in lower-tier areas mixed households over the Christmas holidays and as the health service struggles to cope with vaccine shortages. . The number of Covid-19 cases continues to rise, with the government confirming 53,285 new cases and 613 deaths on Friday, bringing the death toll in seven days to 3,876.
UK Medical Directors have warned that the availability of Covid-19 vaccines will remain a problem for “several months” as they defended plans to widen the gap between doses from three to 12 weeks to try to fight the infection. spiral. rates.
The data showed that the new variant increased the R number between 0.4 and 0.7 even when there were “high levels of social distancing” in England during the pre-Christmas shutdown. The current R number is estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3. It must be below 1 for the number of cases to start to decrease.
Axel Gand, a co-author of the study, said the findings demonstrated a “pretty extreme” difference in transmissibility between the two strains. “There is a big difference in the ease with which the variant of the virus spreads,” he told the BBC.
The Imperial document was released after minutes from the government’s official Sage scientific advisory committee showed ministers were warned on December 22 that it was “highly unlikely” that R could stay below 1 without closing elementary schools. and secondary.
The Imperial newspaper warned: “A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over the broadcast and allow schools to reopen in January 2021.”
Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University in London, said she believed it was “inevitable” that schools would have to close to stop the deterioration of the situation.
“The R number in the southeast was 0.9 during the blockade, but for this variant it was 1.5, which means tripling the cases in two or three weeks, and that was under blocking conditions. So what we are seeing is very, very dangerous, ”he said.
Government officials said the investigation was “broadly in line” with advice given to ministers on the transmissibility of the new strain before Christmas, when policies for new levels and arrangements were set for the holiday season.
They said that therefore the investigation would not lead to a change in the national policy on the reopening of schools in January, but that the situation was being reviewed.
Meera Chand, Covid-19 Incident Director at Public Health England, said the new analyzes provided “further evidence of increased transmissibility” of the new variant, urging the public to abide by existing restrictions.
The threat of the new virus will increase pressure on the government to accelerate vaccine distribution, and the Sage minutes warn that “current vaccination rates are unlikely to significantly change the epidemiology” of the disease.
Health secretary Matt Hancock tweeted on Friday that 1 million vaccines have so far been delivered. The government has a goal of 2 million doses per week, seven times more than current levels.
Meanwhile, as pressures on hospitals mounted, Mike Adams, director of England’s Royal College of Nursing, warned that the existing NHS staff shortage would make it difficult for the government to activate its Nightingale overflow hospitals.
“I am very concerned that the expectation of this massive deployment of capacity is misplaced because there are no staff to do it,” Adams told Sky News.
