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meIt is probably safe to say that when Keir Starmer’s colleagues elected as their leader a MP committed to European internationalism, who had become known as the Labor leader after unilaterally calling for a public vote with the option to stay, they did not expect to do so. sign up for a Tory Brexit before the end of the year.
Starmer lashed out at Labor MPs yesterday into voting in favor of Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deal, and 37 out of 200, nearly one in five, chose to defy his instructions. The decision to order a vote on the bill is all the more surprising considering that Starmer was the only leadership candidate in the last three who disagreed that Labor’s position on Brexit was a key factor in his electoral defeat of 2019, and earlier this year promised to do so. defend freedom of movement after Brexit.
The EU’s future relations bill was passed by the Commons with overwhelming support, by a majority of 448 votes. A conservative supporter compared the prime minister to Pericles and Alexander the Great during the Brexit debate, and the government suffered only two conservative abstentions. Starmer, meanwhile, was receiving pain from all sides. He was asked what happened to his six Brexit tests. The SNP highlighted the difference between UK Labor’s approach and Scottish Labor’s position, ahead of a Holyrood vote in which the latter denied consent to the deal. The leader of the SDLP, Labor’s sister party in Northern Ireland, concluded that “the UK is coming to an end.” Theresa May criticized Starmer for not endorsing her best deal, implying a closer relationship between the UK and the EU. And the debate ended with Michael Gove mocking the Labor leader.
Among the 37 rebels, only three were leaders forced by their decision to resign, while other anti-Brexit activists who might have been tempted to abstain, such as Rosena Allin-Khan and Tulip Siddiq, remained in office. No member of the shadow cabinet broke ranks. But the rejection of Starmer’s whip was spoken by Labor MPs from across the spectrum of factions: You can’t get a much clearer illustration of the party’s broad ecclesiastical nature than Diane Abbott and Neil Coyle. As is customary in Brexit, the splits occurred less along traditional left-to-right political dividing lines and more across geography. With a parliamentary party that is even more representative of the areas still voting after last year’s general election defeat, it took hard work to keep Labor MPs at bay.
Potential rebels were persuaded to follow the whip on the grounds that voting for the deal was the only way to avoid a deal, a line they could easily use to easily explain their vote to voters. This also fits with Labor’s ongoing theme of “responsible opposition.” But those close to the leadership have primarily pointed to private polls sent in a briefing to MPs that reported that “50% would be in favor if Labor voted for the deal,” compared with 22% to vote against and 18%. % to abstain. As YouGov research and Opinion confirms, while the British public does not think much about the Brexit deal, a large majority also want MPs to vote for it. Since taking office in the spring, Starmer has consistently argued that voters generally feel politicians should go ahead with Brexit and move on.
The difficulty for Labor is that this crucial moment, the vote, represented only the end of the beginning, rather than the conclusion of Brexit. Keir Starmer told The Guardian on the eve of the vote that he does not expect Brexit to appear in the pamphlets of Labor MPs in the 2024 election campaign. Is that realistic or wishful thinking? The economic impact of Brexit will begin to be felt in the coming months and the government will not be able to completely blame Covid. Holes in the deal warrant future disputes between the UK and the EU. There’s a built-in review date too – with the UK set to assess how trade deals work in 2025, how could this not feature prominently in the next general election?
Sources close to Starmer say he doesn’t want to ignore Brexit. The leader is committed to filling the gaps in the agreement, such as participating in the Erasmus exchange program and helping traveling musicians who have been affected by Covid. But he wants to make clear that the Labor Party will not offer a full renegotiation of the treaty in its manifesto: the proposals will focus on fine-tuning the relationship and building on the existing agreement. This poses another problem for many of Starmer’s more vocal supporters, as it suggests the promise made as a candidate for leadership in January to “regain” freedom of movement after Brexit has been abandoned.
It’s reasonable to assume that people will forget how the Labor Party voted for the deal this week if it turns out to be a troublesome decision. As many party members have pointed out, no one complains about Labor support for joining the European exchange rate mechanism in 1990, even though Black Wednesday happened two years later. However, it is not so easy to argue that Brexit will be completely forgotten. This seems overly optimistic given that the Labor leadership itself believes that almost all other political parties, notably the SNP in Scotland, will attack this Labor sore spot, for their own electoral gain. Starmer may prefer to focus on long-term solutions that address the roots of Brexit, with a constitutional commission seeking refoulement across the UK, but his opponents are unlikely to allow the wounds of Brexit to heal. The work must be prepared.
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