[ad_1]
The R number for London could go as high as 1.4, a new study warns.
ZOE’s Covid Symptom Study UK Infection Survey estimates the UK’s R number to be 1.2, but different parts of the country are experiencing worse spikes in infection.
London could go as low as 1.4 with England averaging 1.3 (the same as Wales), while Scotland is 1.1.
The R number is an estimate of how many people are infected in each case. If it is more than 1, it means that the virus is growing in dominance.
There are still big differences between London boroughs: Havering and Enfield are still the worst hit areas this week, followed by Newham.
Kingston upon Thames, Hounslow and Richmond upon Thames are currently the least affected areas.
What do you think about this story? Let us know in the comments below.
(Image: Zoe)
Havering saw a 57% increase in infections and currently ranks first in the table for the number of infections per 100,000. But there have also been alarming increases in Newham (168%), Redbridge (154%) and Westminster, which is still comparatively low but saw an increase of 146%.
In the most recent week of full data, from December 11, 2020 to December 17, 2020, 52,466 people tested positive in London, a rate of 585 cases per 100,000 residents. This compares with 24,401 cases and a rate of 272 for the previous week.
The number of Covid hospital patients in England rose by 1,000 on December 21, the largest daily increase in the second wave.
There is growing speculation of a blockade across England since Boxing Day with each region set to Level 4 measurements and people are being told to stay home and only travel if absolutely essential.
Tim Spector OBE, Lead Scientist for the ZOE Covid Symptom Study App and Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King’s College London, said: “Cases in the UK continue to rise rapidly with an R-value of 1.3 approximately doubling every week.
“This new strain of virus is blamed for the recent surge in London and the South East, but while it is definitely becoming the dominant strain in new infections, there is still no strong evidence to support that it is acting differently.
(Image: Zoe)
(Image: PA)
“It is possible that these rapid changes would have happened anyway, just as they have in Wales, which has 4 times the national rate.
“Whichever strain is causing the recent increases, we are still in trouble and we need to limit the number of cases, especially in the elderly to help the NHS.”
“The tests alone are not going to stop the spread, as they did not with the previous waves. People need to know all the symptoms and not just focus on the three” official “symptoms that more than 20% of cases miss. Headache, fatigue, diarrhea, muscle pain, skipping meals, and confusion are just some of the other symptoms associated with Covid-19.
(Image: Zoe)
“If someone suffers from any of these symptoms for the next few weeks, stay home, isolate yourself and get tested.”
Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick insisted there will be no further changes to Christmas plans despite speculation that more areas of England could move to a Level 4 lockdown.
The Communities Secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today program that Covid’s operations committee will examine “what else we know now about the new variant” and its prevalence across the country.
“We know that it is very concentrated in London and the East of England and the South East, but it is not exclusively like that, it is also present more widely, that is cause for concern,” he said.
But “tomorrow is Christmas Eve, we have no intention of changing the pattern regarding Christmas.”
He continued: “We are not going to change people’s plans 24, 48 hours before Christmas.
(Image: Zoe)
“However, the Prime Minister and others have made it very clear that even outside of Level 4, there is a strong degree of personal judgment that must be exercised here.
“It is still up to people to come to a conclusion about how many members of their family or other households they want to reunite on Christmas Day.
“The advice is to keep it small, keep it short, and therefore be safe.”
[ad_2]
