New strain of coronavirus could more easily infect children, experts say

Ministers are considering keeping schools closed in January amid fears that a new strain of coronavirus could infect children more easily, the Daily Telegraph reports.

It comes when experts said a “significantly higher” percentage of children tested positive in the last few weeks since the new variant emerged.

Professor Neil Ferguson is a scientist with the government’s advisory group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (NervTag).

He said there was a “clue” in the data that the mutation had a “higher propensity” to infect young people.

Speaking at a Science Media Center news conference, he said: “There is an indication that you have a higher propensity to infect children that perhaps explains some of the differences, but we have not established any kind of causality in this regard, but we can see that in the data. “

He added: “What we have seen is that, during the confinement in England, we saw a general distribution of the virus towards children, and that was true in the variant and the non-variant, and that is what we would expect, given that we had closed, what It reduced contact with adults, but schools were still open.

“But what we have seen over the course of a five or six week period is that the proportion of pillar two cases for the variant in children under 15 years was statistically significantly higher than that for the non-variant virus.

“We are still investigating the meaning of that.”

Professor Ferguson continued: “This is a hypothesis at the moment, it has not been proven.

“But if it were true, then this could explain a significant proportion, perhaps even the majority, of the observed transmission increase.

“But a lot more work needs to be done to explore this in more detail.”

But Professor Wendy Barclay, a member of the NervTag and head of the infectious disease department at Imperial College London, called for caution on what is said about the spread among children.

She said: “We are not saying that this is a virus that specifically attacks children.

“We know that SARS-CoV-2, as it emerged as a virus, was not as effective in infecting children as it was in adults, and there are many hypotheses about this.

“And again, if the (new) virus is having an easier time finding an entry cell, that would put the kids on a more level playing field.”

He added: “Therefore, children may be equally susceptible to this virus as adults and therefore, given their mixing patterns, one would expect to see more children infected.

“It is not just the viruses that specifically target them, but now it is less inhibited, if you want, to penetrate children.”

Professor Ferguson said the latest estimates were that the virus could be between 50% and 70% more transmissible than the old variant of the virus.

He added that NervTag now had “high confidence” that there is a substantial increase in transmission, but the uncertainty surrounding the numbers meant it had not set a final number.

He also said the virus has spread to other parts of the country, and Susan Hopkins of Public Health England said a hotspot in Cumbria was being investigated.

Professor Ferguson said that what happens with the current restrictions in the country will inform policy on future measures.

He said: “What we see happening in the next two weeks when the country is quite close to closure and schools are closed and the areas with the highest frequency of this virus are at Level 4, which is basically equivalent to the last closure, which happens to the virus in that period and what happens to it in other areas that are still at Levels 3 and 2 will inform policy going forward. “

When asked if the new variant could become the dominant one in the UK, Prof Ferguson said: ‘I think it’s very likely that it will, given the trends we’ve seen so far, and how it spreads in areas that they got infected first.

“Of course making predictions is dangerous.”

Professor Ferguson said his best assessment is that the virus will decline over the next two weeks for both variant and non-variant.

He explained: “Contact rates tend to be lower during Christmas with the tightening of Christmas measures and Tier4 for higher areas.

“I certainly hope the virus subsides.

“If we do that, it will give us an idea of ​​the level of controls that need to be put in place, the real question then is, how much can we relax the measures in the new year and still maintain control.”