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Almost since the day of the Brexit vote, questions have been asked about the thousands of trucks that cross between Dover and Calais each day.
It is the world’s busiest sea route: the artery that brings supplies from the continent and carries goods to European markets. And tonight is running out.
The French government announced that it would not only stop the arrival of passengers from the United Kingdom, but also accompanied cargo. What that means is that anything that is under the control of one person, be it a courier van or a huge articulated truck, is prohibited from traveling to France.
That is not all freight. Containers can still be crossed, as can trailers that are detached from the cab of a truck and carried across the Canal without a driver. But trucks going up and down UK motorways, usually delivering fresh produce or just-in-time supplies, will not be able to enter.
At the moment, this is only for 48 hours while the French, in concert with the EU nations, decide whether they can come up with a uniform approach. But even this is going to cause horrendous problems for shippers, wondering how to deal with what is, in effect, a one-way valve.
A European company, for example, can send its truck to the UK, but is unclear on when the vehicle or driver will be able to return. A British company cannot get its truck to the mainland at all, so it would have to find another route for delivery. And simply putting things in containers means having to figure out how to get them to and from the port.
And all this at a time when British companies are desperately trying to find a way to deal with whatever kind of Brexit they end up facing.
Ultimately, it is hard to think of a tougher hand for a British company than an uncertain Brexit, a pandemic that is mutating before our eyes, and a sudden and immediate disruption of supply chains.
Across Europe, decisions will be made in the next few hours that will have repercussions. The continent is likely to seek a unified response from ministers when they speak Monday morning. But what does that look like?
It is clear that this variant form of the virus has appeared in Europe, with cases reported in Belgium, Italy, Denmark and the Netherlands. It may be more widespread than that, but by mutual agreement it may not have been identified. But there is a widespread view that, even if it is more prevalent than previously thought, it is not as common as it appears to be in the UK.
Boris Johnson’s press conference on Saturday night, which highlighted the mutation of the virus and created the fourth level, not only attracted the attention of the British but also spooked many European governments, prompting this wave of restrictions on trip.
Some, like France and Belgium, have implemented bans that only last a day or two. Others, like Germany and Bulgaria, have implemented restrictions that last until the end of January. It is feasible that if Europe decides to follow a common playbook, these bans could all last until the end of the year or, to put it another way, until the end of the Brexit transition period.
We all knew that Brexit would disrupt borders and have an impact on supply chains. What we didn’t know, because no one could have known, was that a mutant version of a deadly pandemic would accelerate this disruption. The question for European leaders now is how they balance competing demands to maintain ties with the UK, fearing that such ties will hasten the arrival of a new danger.
