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More than 30 pro-Brexit Conservative MPs privately threaten to withhold support for a UK-EU free trade deal if Boris Johnson is forced to make major last-minute commitments to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
According to several high-level MEPs of the 70-member European Research Group (ERG), their membership is evenly split between those who say they will “hold out” and vote for a deal even if the prime minister has to compromise, and those who that they would be willing to rebel and deny his support in protest if he leaves his current hard-line positions.
“There has been a lot of activity in our WhatsApp groups about this,” said a senior ERG member. “We are divided between those who say hold on and do this, and others who say they have fought their entire career for this and will not vote for a deal that is not really Brexit.”
While Johnson is almost certain to win a vote on any deal, given that Labor is expected to back one, a significant Conservative rebellion would be a blow to the prime minister and suggest that the Conservative civil war over Europe will continue even after the end. of the transition period.
Senior EU figures, including the European Parliament, have pointed to Sunday as the last realistic deadline for the deal. But on Saturday both Downing Street and Brussels appeared to be more pessimistic about the chances of a deal than they did a few days ago, although talks between officials continued over the weekend.
Clément Beaune, France’s minister for European Affairs and a former ally of Emmanuel Macron, said, however, that France was prepared to delay negotiations even beyond the European parliament’s Sunday deadline. His intervention occurred as Observer it learned that key member states have rejected an attempt by the European Commission to offer an improved deal on fish to Downing Street to break the deadlock.
Annual fish turnover for UK vessels in British waters is around € 850 million (£ 770 million), compared to € 650 million for EU member states. The prime minister has rejected the latest EU offer to deliver more than 25% of its catch by value (162.5 million euros a year) to UK vessels. Downing Street insists that the EU must come closer to its demand for repatriation of 60% of current catches, worth around 390 million euros a year. The government also wants to restrict a phase-in period for new agreements to three years, but the EU has suggested a period of six or seven years.
It is understood that Michel Barnier’s negotiating team was seeking to present an improved offer in the face of Downing Street’s rejection, but Member States with a greater interest in fishing have told him they will not go further.
MEPs had said on Thursday they would hold a consent vote on December 28 if the two sides agreed to terms before midnight CET on Sunday, raising the stakes for a weekend deal.
But as negotiations continued in Brussels on Saturday, Beaune said the French government would not rush to reach an agreement for the next 24 hours. He said, “There’s nothing wrong with not saying, well, it’s Sunday night, so we’re going to wrap it up and sacrifice everything. It can be difficult and sometimes difficult to understand, but it is necessary to take our time and, in any case, not sacrifice our interests under the pressure of a calendar ”.
If Johnson comes up with a deal with the EU, it will only be achieved if both sides switch ground on issues including EU fishermen’s access to UK waters and the so-called “level playing field” rules that Brussels says. that UK companies must meet return for continued access to the single market. Brexit conservatives are especially concerned to ensure that the European court of law plays no role in future disputes involving the UK.
Sir Bernard Jenkin, a veteran eurosceptic and member of the ERG, said he had “complete faith” in Johnson for a deal that would protect UK fisheries and UK sovereignty.
But emphasizing the importance of maintaining that position, he added: “That means we regain our full sovereign right to democratic self-government and we don’t sell out on issues, including fish.”
Eurosceptics say the biggest beneficiary of a rigged Brexit deal would be Nigel Farage.
Another Brexiter veteran, Peter Bone, the MP from Wellingborough, said: “I don’t believe for a moment that the prime minister is not going to respect the results of the referendum and the mandate achieved in the general elections.
“But if you ask me if a bad deal was made, which I don’t think will happen, then I couldn’t vote for a bad deal and I think there are a significant number of colleagues who could not vote for a bad deal. agreement.”
The deal could still be provisionally applied on January 1 if an agreement is reached in the next few days, and the European Parliament will hold a vote at the end of the month.
This process would also take up to a week, given the need for the treaty to be translated and reviewed by officials in EU capitals. Barnier told MEPs on Thursday that a short period of time without any trade and security deals in place might be necessary as a result if the talks drag on until Christmas.
Gerard van Balsfoort, president of the European Fisheries Alliance, representing the EU fishing industry, said the EU offer has already gone too far and would sound the death sentence for the sector. He said: “The form of an agreement, as it currently stands, would be a serious blow to the European fishing sector, which is made up of more than 18,000 fishermen and 3,500 boats with an annual turnover of 20.7 billion euros.
“Our industry is literally and metaphorically on the brink and despite repeated promises we are about to be sold downstream with the offer made to the UK by the European Commission. Even more so when fisheries negotiations with the UK are expected to start again after only six or seven years. “
