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Good afternoon,
I regret to report that the situation has deteriorated since I last spoke to you three days ago.
Yesterday afternoon I was briefed on the latest data showing the virus is spreading faster in London, the South East and East of England than would be expected given the tough restrictions that already exist.
I also received an explanation as to why the virus is spreading faster in these areas. It appears that this spread is now being driven by the new variant of the virus, which we learned about earlier this week.
Our New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group, NERVTAG, has spent the last few days discussing the new variant.
There is no evidence that the variant causes more severe disease or higher mortality, but it appears to be transmitted much more easily.
NERVTAG’s initial analysis suggests that the new variant could increase R by 0.4 or more. Although there is considerable uncertainty, it can be up to 70% more transmissible than the previous variant.
These are the first data. It is subject to revision. It is the best we have at the moment, and we have to act on the basis of the information that we have because it is spreading very fast now.
The UK has by far the best genomic sequencing capacity in the world, which means that we are better able to identify new strains like this than any other country.
Last night, the medical director presented our findings so far to the World Health Organization and we will continue to be fully transparent with our global partners.
There is still a lot we don’t know. While we’re pretty sure the variant spreads faster, there’s no evidence to suggest it’s more lethal or causes more serious disease. Similarly, there is no evidence to suggest that the vaccine will be less effective against the new variant.
Our experts will continue their work to improve our understanding of the variant.
So we learn more about this variant as we go along.
But we already know enough to be sure that we must act now.
I met with the ministers of the Covid Operations Committee last night and again early this morning, and the Cabinet met at lunchtime to agree on next actions.
First, we will introduce new restrictions in the worst affected areas, specifically those parts of London, the South East and the East of England that are currently at level 3.
These areas will enter a new level 4, which will be broadly equivalent to the national restrictions that were in effect in England in November.
That means:
Residents in those areas must stay home, apart from the limited exceptions established by law. Non-essential indoor gyms and recreation facilities and personal care services must close. People should work from home if they can, but can travel to work if this is not possible, for example in the construction and manufacturing sectors. People should not enter or leave Level 4 areas, and Level 4 residents should not spend the night away from home. People can only meet a person from another household in a public outdoor space.
Unlike national restrictions in November, community worship can still take place in level 4 areas.
These measures will take effect tomorrow morning.
All tiers will continue to be reviewed periodically according to the approach set out above, with the next formal review point taking place on December 30th.
Second, we are issuing new travel tips.
Although the new variant is concentrated in Level 4 areas, it is nonetheless present at lower levels throughout the country.
We ask everyone, at all levels, to stay local.
People should carefully consider whether they need to travel abroad and follow the rules of their level.
Those in level 4 areas will not be able to travel abroad, with limited exceptions, such as for work reasons.
Third, I’m afraid we must look at Christmas again.
As Prime Minister, it is my duty to make the tough decisions, to do the right thing to protect the people of this country.
Given the preliminary evidence we have on this new variant of the virus, and the potential risk it poses, it is with great regret that I must tell you that we cannot continue with Christmas as planned.
In England, those who live in Level 4 areas should not mingle with anyone outside their own home at Christmas, although the bubbles of support will remain in place for those who are at particular risk of loneliness or isolation.
In the rest of the country, Christmas rules that allow up to three households to meet will now be limited to just Christmas Day, instead of the five days as previously set.
As before, there will be no relaxation on December 31, so people shouldn’t break the rules on New Years.
I know how much excitement people get at this time of year and how important it is for grandparents to see their grandchildren and for families to be together.
So I know how disappointing this will be, but we have said throughout this pandemic that we must and will be guided by science.
When science changes, we must change our response.
When the virus changes its attack method, we must change our defense method.
As your Prime Minister, I sincerely believe that I have no choice. Without action, the evidence suggests that infections would increase, hospitals would be overwhelmed and many thousands more would lose their lives.
I want to emphasize that we are not alone in this fight: many of our European friends and neighbors are forced to take similar measures.
We work closely with delegated administrations to protect people throughout the UK.
Of course, now there is hope, real hope, that we will soon be rid of this virus.
That perspective grows with each passing day and each dose of vaccine administered.
The UK was the first country in the Western world to start using a clinically approved vaccine.
So please, if the NHS contacts you, get your vaccine and join the 350,000 people across the UK who have already received their first dose.
Yes, Christmas this year will be very different, but we must be realistic.
We are sacrificing our chance to see our loved ones this Christmas, so we have a better chance of protecting their lives so we can see them next Christmas.
As sure as night follows day, we will defeat this virus.
We will defeat him.
And we’ll get our lives back.
