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The R number in the UK is estimated to have risen to between 1.1 and 1.2, according to SAGE’s group of government advisers.
The growth rate of COVID-19 therefore, it is estimated between 1% and 4%.
Last week, the number stood at 0.9-1.0, with a growth rate of -2% to 0% per day. And when England emerged from November lockdown earlier this month, the number was 0.8 to 1, the lowest since August.
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Christmas: ‘Keep it short, keep it small’
The R number is the speed at which the infection is transmitted, which means that the most recent data estimates that 10 people transmit the virus to 11 or 12 others.
SAGE experts gave the overall estimate for the UK, but their estimates also show variations between regions.
The English regions with the lowest R number, according to the latest data, are the North East and Yorkshire and North West, where the number is 0.9 to 1.1.
The regional R numbers for England are:
- East of England – 1.1 to 1.3
- London – 1.1 to 1.3
- Midlands – 1 to 1.2
- Northeast and Yorkshire: 0.9 to 1.1
- Northwest – 0.9 to 1.1
- Southeast – 1.1 to 1.3
- Southwest – 0.9 to 1.2
The updated R number will do nothing to reassure those concerned about the impact a relaxation of restrictions during Christmas may have on the pandemic.
The prime minister is advising people who plan to train “Christmas bubbles“Next week to begin minimizing contact with people outside the home starting today, but the best nurses and scientists are among those who have warned of a significant increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the New Year.
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It comes when the data shows as many as one in 95 people tested positive for COVID-19 last week.
England, Wales and Scotland saw an increase in the percentage of the population with the virus in the week of December 6-12. The numbers in Northern Ireland no longer appear to be decreasing.
That week’s figure of 567,300 is an increase of 481,500 people, or one in 115, the week before.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics do not include people in hospitals, nursing homes, or other institutional settings.
Analysis: the epidemic accelerates and it is stressed that you have to be careful at Christmas
By Thomas Moore, Science Correspondent
The official R number, the measure of the spread of the virus, confirms that the epidemic is accelerating.
This is more than last week, continuing the acceleration we have seen since the lockdown was lifted in early December.
The government’s Office of Science says the epidemic is growing between 1% and 4% every day.
But there are large regional variations, with the largest increases in East England and London.
There, the epidemic is growing by as much as 6% a day, which is alarmingly high as we approach the Christmas period.
It will underscore the concern of many scientists that the domestic mixing allowed by government rules will lead to a further explosive increase in cases, hospital admissions and deaths early in the new year.
