Poll Shows Support for Scottish Independence Rises to Joint Record Highs as SNP Establishes for Majority

The Scotsman / Savanta ComRes poll, the first in a new series ahead of next year’s Scottish Parliament elections, also suggests that the SNP is on track to gain a dominant majority in the Holyrood poll in May next year and it could win all the seats in constituency one. .

The survey interviewed 1,013 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between the dates of December 11-15.

The most striking feature is the return to record levels of support for independence after polls began to settle in lower numbers after the record high of 58 percent recorded in a separate poll in October.

With “don’t know” excluded, 58 percent of voters intend to vote “Yes” and 42 percent vote “No.” This drops to 52 percent and 38 percent when not included.

The poll also indicates that 40 percent of voters believe a second independence referendum should be held in the next two years, 15 percent say five years should pass, and 6 percent ask for a decade of waiting before another. vote.

Only 12% of voters believe that a referendum should be held in more than ten years, and 16% say that no referendum should be held.

Independence also ranks sixth on the top priority list for Scottish voters, with the economy leading the way, Brexit second, followed by health, employment and education issues.

Support for independence is reflected in Holyrood’s voting intention numbers, with the SNP poised to bring home a majority with more than twice the number of voters who intend to back Nicola Sturgeon’s party.

In all, 55 per cent of Scottish voters plan to back the party in their constituency, and 42 per cent back the incumbents in the regional list vote.

The union vote is also split relatively evenly between Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labor, and parties should see 20 and 16 percent support in the constituency vote.

The numbers are nearly identical in the list vote, with 20 percent again backing Douglas Ross’s party and 17 percent backing Richard Leonard’s party.

In their best result since a YouGov poll in March 2017, the Scottish Greens have the support of 12 percent of Scottish voters on the regional voting list.

Scottish Liberal Democrats are stable at six and seven points for voting by constituency and regional list, respectively.

Projections suggest that results along these lines will see the SNP return 71 MSP, with Scottish Conservatives down eight seats in 23 MSP and Scottish Labor five seats in 19 MSP.

The Scottish Greens would see their representation nearly double from six to 11 MSP, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats would be left with five MSP.

Such an outcome would also see an overwhelming majority in favor of independence elected to the Scottish Parliament.

Chris Hopkins, Associate Director of Savanta ComRes, said: “I think voting intentions are obviously the most striking parts of this poll, with the SNP on track for an unprecedented second-majority government in Holyrood under a system designed to limit such voting. executive power.

“Given that the likely hegemony of the SNP in Scotland shows little sign of abating, all the evidence at this stage points to Scotland voting Yes if they are granted another independence referendum and based on this evidence it may not be that close. .

The SNP is also seen as the most trusted party on several key issues, including traditionally strong conservative areas, such as the economy, employment, and education.

More than twice the number of voters believe that the SNP is the right party to improve health, education and the economy in Scotland rather than the Conservatives or Labor.

Scottish Conservatives are also the least confident about keeping their promises, and more than half of voters say “keeping their promises” does not apply to trade unionists.

Paint a picture of an uphill battle for the opposition in Scotland before attempting to overthrow Sturgeon and the SNP.

This is further demonstrated by the fact that despite the impact of Covid-19 and the controversy over whether the restrictions are sufficient or too strict to effectively combat the virus, the Prime Minister continues to be viewed more favorably by the voters.

Ms Sturgeon’s net approval ratings are by far the highest among Scottish leaders, at 28% net favorability, and the Scottish government also receives strong support at 17%.

However, Ross, the new leader of the Scottish Conservatives, has -9%, and Leonard, as the Scottish Labor leader, is the worst of the major parties at -18%.

Both leaders are also struggling to reach the public, with nearly one in three voters answering ‘I don’t know’ when asked to what extent they felt favorable or unfavorable about the respective party bosses.

The impact of Boris Johnson’s personality and the leadership of the UK Conservatives is also likely to affect the popularity of the party’s Scots, with the prime minister’s approval languishing at -44 percent.

In all, his approval ratings are 72 points lower than Sturgeon’s.

Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer’s preference is higher than that of his Scottish counterpart, and the poll indicates a net preference of just under 1 percent.

Hopkins said this could be seen as a ray of hope for an otherwise struggling Scottish Labor party.

He said: “Despite being behind the Tories on both Holyrood voting intentions, there seems to be some positives for Labor in this poll. Scots seem to trust Labor to understand the issues, but feel they lack leadership, good policies and still seem more divided than the Conservatives.

“Reasonable favor of Keir Starmer [compared to Leonard, Ross and Johnson] it’s going to need to be tapped quickly for Labor to take advantage. “

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