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The coronavirus replication number (R) is likely to be equal to or greater than 1 in all areas of England after withdrawing during the shutdown, Sage advisers fear.
In its latest weekly update, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which has been helping guide the Government through the pandemic, said it “no longer trusts” that R in all regions of England is below 1.
The crucial number could hit 1.1 in London, the South East and the East, with new infections increasing by as much as 1-2% every day in those regions, less than a week before the government decides whether to move cities and cities outside their current levels.
England’s overall R number, between 0.8 and 1.0, was unchanged for a week.
For the entire UK, the R number, which measures how fast Covid-19 is spreading, has moved slightly to 0.9-1.0 from 0.8-1.0 a week ago, but the number of new infections is declining between zero and 2%. everyday.
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An R number between 0.9 and 1 means that, on average, every 10 infected people will infect between 9 and 10 more people.
Two weeks ago, the UK R rate fell below 1 for the first time in three months to between 0.9 and 1.0.
If the R value is above one, the Covid-19 epidemic can grow exponentially, but if it is below one, it shows that the outbreak is receding.
London and Essex are at risk of being moved to Level 3 due to rising infection rates, while northern locations could eventually escape the more difficult category.
(Image: Press Association Images)
Here are the latest values by region, with the R number followed by the growth rate, based on data through December 7:
– United Kingdom: 0.9-1.0, -2% to 0%
– England: 0.8-1.0, -2% to 0%
– East of England: 0.9-1.1, -1% to + 2%
– London: 0.9-1.1, -1% to + 1%
– Southeast: 0.9-1.1, -1% to + 1%
– Midlands: 0.8-1.0, -3% to -1%
– Southwest: 0.8-1.0, -4% to 0%
– Northeast and Yorkshire: 0.7-0.9, -4% to -2%
– Northwest: 0.7-0.9, -4% to -2%
A statement from Sage said: “The R estimate for England remains broadly consistent with previous weeks, between 0.8 and 1.0.
(Image: Press Association Images)
“All NHS regions of England have R estimates that are below or span 1.
“This suggests that the epidemic continues to decline in some parts of the NHS of England and Sage is confident that this is the case in the North West and North East and Yorkshire.
“Sage is not sure that R is currently below 1 in East England, London and the South East.”
Estimates of R and growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modeling Group (SPI-M), a subgroup of Sage.
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections changes from day to day, is between minus 2% and zero for the UK as a whole.
It means that the number of new infections is reduced between zero and 2% every day.
Estimates of R and growth rates are shown as a range, and actual values are likely to be within this range, according to experts.
Sage also said that the figures released on Friday more accurately represent the average situation of the past weeks rather than the current situation.
(Image: Press Association Images)
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Meanwhile, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a member of Sage, speaking in a personal capacity, warned that Covid-19 is killing 10,000 more people a month than normal and that family gatherings at Christmas could only make matters worse.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today show: “The downward trend that occurred after the higher levels and the lockdown have now stopped, the cases are increasing.
“(There are) 350, 400 deaths a day in the UK, that’s roughly 10,000 a month. And these are actual deaths. They are additional deaths that would not have occurred normally.
“They are from Covid, not just Covid.”
He added: “I’m sure people wanted a downtrend before Christmas to produce a kind of buffer before the Christmas season, because there will surely be some effect.
“Now, I don’t want to say what the size of that effect will be because it depends crucially on people’s behavior.
“And how much they obey the rules and are sensible.”
When asked why there would be a Christmas impact on Covid, he told Today: “Because there will be more travel.
“People will mix. And we can see how behavior influences things.”
(Image: PA)
Sir David said: “This could just be a problem, and it might not be that big, I don’t want to say.
“I think we have to look beyond that into the whole winter, I think.
“We can’t make this go away and we can’t let it get out of control. And it won’t get out of control … that won’t be allowed to happen.”
An estimated 481,500 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between November 29 and December 5, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This equates to about 0.88% of the population, or one in 115 people.
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It represents a drop of 521,300 people, or one in 105, who were estimated to have Covid-19 in the November 22-28 period.
The figures do not include people staying in hospitals, nursing homes, or other institutional settings.
Modeling the level of infection across different age groups in England, the ONS said rates remain highest among secondary school-age children (school years 7 to 11) and young adults (school year 12 to 24 years).
Rates are estimated to have declined among young adults, ages 25 to 34 and ages 50 to 69, but have stabilized for those ages 35 to 49.
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 has increased in recent weeks, the ONS said.
An estimated 25,600 people in private households had Covid-19 between November 29 and December 5, the equivalent of 0.84% of the population.
This represents an increase of an estimated 18,100 people for the November 22-28 period, or 0.60% of the population.
Due to the relatively small number of tests and the low number of positives in its sample from Wales, the results should be interpreted with caution, the ONS added.
Prime Minister Mark Drakeford has described the coronavirus situation in Wales as “very dire”.
Drakeford said that blocking the country’s firewall for 17 days had successfully lowered Covid-19 rates, but they had now risen “faster than our models had predicted,” adding that it was “firmly entrenched in so many parts of the world. Welsh”.
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“In some parts of Wales, like Neath Port Talbot, Blaenau Gwent and Rhondda Cynon Taf, rates are now incredibly high,” Drakeford told a news conference in Cardiff.
“These very high levels of coronavirus are inevitably translating into significant and sustained pressure on our NHS.
“This week, the number of hospitalized patients related to the coronavirus surpassed 1,900 for the first time and continues to rise.
“If this increase continues at this rate, we could see 2,500 people with coronavirus in the hospital on Christmas Day.”
In Northern Ireland, an estimated 7,800 people had Covid-19 between November 29 and December 5, or 0.43% of the population.
This is below an estimated 9,500 people for the November 22-28 period, or 0.52% of the population.
In Scotland, it is estimated that 43,300 people had Covid-19 between November 29 and December 5, or 0.82% of the population, compared to 40,900 people, or 0.78%, from 22 to 28 of November.
All figures are for people in private households.
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