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Analysis: London has provided the latest COVID mystery
By Rowland Manthorpe, Technology Correspondent
Covid-19 has generated many mysteries. Here’s one more to add to the list: what happened to hospital admissions in London since mid-October.
Take a look at the red line in the first graph below – it’s barely moving. Even when the lock started and ended, there was hardly a flicker. It’s as if the crash never happened.
This is one of the many puzzling features that emerged from the second set of locks in the UK. Rather than clearing up, the picture has become more complicated.
In England, for example, the blockade clearly reduced hospital admissions in the North East and Yorkshire. He did the same in the Midlands, but with one crucial difference: after the lockdown, they started jumping again.
The same happened in Wales, but to a greater extent. You entered a 17-day “firewall” lockdown between Friday, October 23, and Monday, November 9. Prime Minister Mark Drakeford promised it would be a “short, sharp blow to turn back time, slow down the virus and give us more time.”
The blocking actually slowed down the virus (there is a delay between the measures being introduced and their entry into force, so we can clearly see that the blocking worked). But, as the second graph shows, it only did so very briefly.
Most likely the key factor was what happened when the lockdown ended. Pubs, bars and restaurants have reopened and, sadly, hospitality seems to be increasing. The Wales lockdown delayed the spread of the virus, but because the restrictions did not remain in place, it was nothing more than a pause.
What should the government of Wales do next? There is talk of another firewall, but wouldn’t that have the same effect as before? Is it necessary to introduce more restrictions later? Is there a way to stop the spread without imposing the strictest levels of restrictions?
These same questions are also being asked in London, which now has the highest case rate per 100,000 in the country, with a rate of 191.8 per 100,000 population. Will it enter Tier 3, despite the economic damage it will cause?
There is an argument against the move to Level 3: hospital capacity in the capital. Despite the recent surge in admissions, London is still far from where it was at the top.
But even if politicians are your scientific advisers they are comforted by that, they will be very concerned about the trend shown in that red line in the final graph: the mysterious rise in hospital admissions.
What might be called “Level 4” had no obvious impact in London. How do we know that Level 3 will work best? And if not, what will happen next?
