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An EU plan to impose additional sanctions on Turkey will backfire and will only make it more difficult to reach a deal on growing Greek-Turkish competition in the eastern Mediterranean over gas resources, the Turkish president’s senior adviser warned.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s adviser, Ibrahim Kalin, urged the EU not to allow its agenda “to be curtailed or hijacked by one or two countries,” a reference to Greece, Cyprus and France, the EU countries pushing the most for stop heavy sanctions Turkey is exploring for gas in Cypriot waters. Kalin said Wednesday: “Sanctions will not work. It will produce the reverse effect. Everyone will lose at the end of the day. “
A draft sanctions plan to be presented to EU leaders on Thursday proposes sanctions on Turkish companies and individuals responsible for drilling in the disputed waters. But it says EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell would have to draw up detailed plans between now and the next meeting of EU leaders in March, giving mediators another three months to see if the talks can ensure a solution.
The proposal would allow the EU to “prepare additional lists” on the basis of a sanctions list already in force since 2019 and “if necessary, work on the extension” of its scope.
France, along with Greece, has been pushing for earlier and broader “sectoral” sanctions on the Turkish economy.
Germany has acted as a mediator and has been pressuring Turkey not to send its exploration ship Oruç Reis to Greek waters. The ship was first recalled in September after German pressure, but then on October 12, Turkey returned the ship to the southern coast of the Greek island of Kastellorizo, off southern Turkey. The ship was retired again on November 30.
Kalin said Turkey was hoping after the latest setback from Oruç Reis that talks between Turkey and Greece could begin, but Greece had refused to speak until after the EU summit. Turkey is calling for a comprehensive energy and gas conference in the eastern Mediterranean to discuss rival claims on drilling rights. “We are ready to talk to everyone without preconditions,” he said.
The broader concern is that France, in alliance with Greece, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus, is trying to form a tough alliance against Turkey. French President Emmanuel Macron is increasingly at odds with Turkey over its role in Cyprus, its interventions in Libya, and more generally on the extent to which Turkey has become a standard-bearer for the Muslim Brotherhood throughout the Middle East. .
France has held joint military exercises with Greece, Italy and Cyprus to send a warning to Turkey. Macron has called for a Pax Mediterranea to combat Erdogan’s “imperial fantasies.”
The incoming Joe Biden administration is unlikely to make the gas dispute one of its top five foreign policy priorities. But during the election campaign, Biden said: “The Trump administration must pressure Turkey to refrain from further provocative actions in the region against Greece, including threats of use of force, to create the space for diplomacy to have success”.
James Jeffrey, former US ambassador to Turkey and US special envoy to Syria, said this week: “It is really difficult to point out a way forward. We are dealing with repressed prejudices and antagonisms on both sides, and we are dealing with a unique and very dominant personality in President Erdogan.
